The shipping industry is at greater risk than ever of missing its 2030 zero-emission fuel targets, due in large part to the regulatory uncertainty of the last 12 months, according to a new report.
Launched today at New York Climate Week, the fifth edition of the ‘Climate action in shipping: Progress towards shipping’s 2030 breakthrough’ report tracks the sector’s advancement towards its climate target of having at least 5-10% of the fuel used in international shipping come from scalable zero-emission sources (SZEF) by 2030. This is the estimated level of SZEF uptake needed to meet the ambitions laid out in the 2023 International Maritime Organization (IMO) Greenhouse Gas Strategy, and ultimately, the industry’s entire 2050 net-zero goal.
The latest edition of the report reveals mixed progress towards that swiftly approaching target, with multiple indicators demonstrating the flow-on effects of economic and political upheaval, the crisis in Hormuz, energy security and supply chain concerns, and the regulatory uncertainty caused by the failure to adopt the IMO’s Net-Zero Framework (NZF) last year.
“Shipping’s energy transition is necessary and is going to happen. The obviously worsening impacts of climate change demand it. The 2030 breakthrough target was embraced by an industry that needs to start bringing tomorrow’s zero-emission fuels to market today if it is going to do its part,” said Jesse Fahnestock, director of decarbonisation at the Global Maritime Forum. “While the geopolitical turmoil of the past year has frustrated this process, with the right policy push, accelerated industry action can still deliver on this crucial ambition. Adoption of the Net-Zero Framework at the IMO would allow that acceleration to begin in earnest.”
Across the five key ‘levers’ used to assess the industry’s progress (technology and supply, demand, finance, policy, and civil society), there have been multiple achievements. The past year has seen the world’s first ammonia bunkering and sea trials, a 53% increase in the number of ports offering methanol bunkering (19 to 29), a tripling of methanol-capable in-service tonnage (the largest single-year capability gain ever), and the global shipping finance portfolio’s greatest improvement in climate alignment on record.
“Shipping’s pathway to zero remains achievable, investable, and aligned with development goals. Positive progress in technology and zero-emission fuel supply is encouraging, but investment decisions cannot afford to wait,” said Dan Ioschpe, Climate High-Level Champion for COP30. “Demand for zero-emission shipping and financial flows directed toward zero-emission shipping are critical to accelerating the pace. Done right, climate action in shipping will increase competitiveness, improve energy security, and drive socio-economic development.”
Despite this positive progress, other key levers needed to reach the 2030 breakthrough target (particularly across demand, finance, and policy) have either stagnated or worsened since the last report. With demand signals weakened by the widespread ‘wait and see’ approach to global regulation, the order book has regressed (SZEF-capable vessels fell from 9.5% to 5.7% of total tonnage on order), and shipping-specific sustainable debt issuance decreased from $3.4 billion in 2024 to $3.0 billion in 2025.
“The failure to adopt the NZF was the single most transition-regressive event we’ve seen in the five years this report has been running,” said Dr Pinar Langer, research fellow at the UCL Energy Institute. “Reversing this momentum loss and securing regulatory certainty this year is therefore one of the most important next steps to give shipowners the confidence to order zero-emission vessels, lenders the incentive to invest in them, and charterers the impetus to pay for low-carbon shipping.”
The report makes multiple recommendations, including that the IMO adopt the NZF ‘as is’ at the upcoming session in December, as this will create the global policy clarity and direction the ecosystem urgently needs. It also stresses the growing importance of national and regional policies that underpin SZEF production to de-risk first-mover action, regardless of what happens next at the IMO
2026 progress tracker
• Technology and SZEF supply – partially on track
• Demand – not on track
• Finance – not on track
• Policy – not on track
• Civil society – partially on track
Definitions
Scalable zero-emissions fuel (SZEF)
The report sets several key conditions for SZEF. These include the need for the fuels to be:
• scalable, such that the 200-300 million tonnes (Mt) of oil equivalent of current annual consumption can be matched in the foreseeable future;
• producible with greenhouse gas intensity reductions of 90-100% relative to incumbent fossil-based fuels on a full life cycle (well-to-wake) basis; and
• competitive in cost of production in the foreseeable future, assuming continued research and development and the adoption of viable policy support mechanisms.
The definition therefore excludes biofuels, less-polluting fossil fuels (including liquified natural gas), blue fuels (i.e., those derived from fossil fuel sources, such as hydrogen produced from natural gas), or applications of carbon capture. Options that are not at a high technology readiness level and have significant barriers to adoption are also excluded.
Source: The Global Maritime Forum.
