A sweeping purge within China’s armed forces under President Xi Jinping has removed dozens of senior commanders — including some of the military’s most experienced leaders — raising fresh questions about Beijing’s preparedness for a potential conflict, particularly over Taiwan, according to a new study.
Among those detained, dismissed or removed from public view in recent years are a general who once oversaw forces positioned against Taiwan, a former head of the People’s Liberation Army’s training department credited with modernising combat drills, and a senior officer who had long served as Xi’s chief military aide. Their cases form part of a broader campaign to overhaul the People’s Liberation Army.
The study, released Tuesday by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, documents the scale of the shake-up, culminating last month in the removal of top general Zhang Youxia.
Researchers estimate that since 2022, roughly 100 officers holding the ranks of general or lieutenant general — nearly half of China’s senior military leadership — have been dismissed, sidelined or investigated. The figure reportedly includes more than a dozen officers who were purged even after retirement.
Bonny Lin, director of the China Power Project at CSIS, said the vacancies created by the purge could significantly hamper China’s ability to mount major military operations in the near term. “Given the significant vacancies, it would be incredibly difficult for China to launch large military campaigns against Taiwan,” she wrote, adding that there are signs the turmoil has already affected military exercises around Taiwan in 2025.
The removals began gradually in 2022 but accelerated sharply over the following years. Around 14 senior officers were dismissed or disappeared in 2023, 11 more in 2024, and roughly 62 last year alone — many in the latter half. In 2026, at least 11 officers have reportedly missed key meetings they would ordinarily attend, suggesting further trouble within the ranks.
Analysts say replacing the ousted commanders will not be straightforward. Promotions within the PLA typically require three to five years of service at a given rank, narrowing the pool of eligible candidates. Moreover, Xi’s emphasis on political loyalty alongside professional competence complicates succession planning.
- Taylor Fravel, a China military expert at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, noted that Xi must balance loyalty with operational expertise. “He needs a military that combines both,” Fravel said, questioning how easily such replacements can be found after such extensive removals.
The ripple effects could extend far beyond the top brass. As former CIA analyst John Culver observed, the careers of many junior officers are closely tied to senior commanders. Their fall from favour could disrupt the PLA’s internal hierarchy for years to come.
The findings suggest that while Xi’s purge may consolidate political control over the military, it could also undermine institutional experience and cohesion — at a time of heightened tensions in the Taiwan Strait.
