A chaotic April ended with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed for a second consecutive month, cascading oil shortages across Asia and a U.S. blockade choking off Iranian tankers and oil exports.
Iran’s oil exports collapsed 43% over two months, according to data from Vortexa. By May 1, U.S. forces had redirected 44 blockade-busting Iranian vessels across the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean, adding to economic pressure.
A 12-day ceasefire that began on April 8 was extended but failed to restore commercial transits or freedom of navigation through the Strait, with traffic down 93%. Nearly 900 cargo ships and tankers remain trapped. The month was defined by a series of extraordinary and unprecedented events:
U.S. forces boarded, detained, and are now seeking civil forfeiture of two Iran-trading very large crude carriers, Majestic X (IMO 9198317) and Tifani (IMO 9273337), both interdicted in the Indian Ocean. A third vessel, the Iran-flagged containership Touska (IMO 9328900), was fired on by USS Spruance on April 19 and seized after refusing to comply.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps seized the Panama-flagged MSC Francesca (IMO 9401116) and Liberia-flagged Epaminondas (IMO 9153862). Both were linked to MSC, the world’s largest container line, which the IRGC said was banned from transits for perceived links to Israel. Both ships are now anchored 9 nm off the Iranian port of Seerik.
U.S. sanctions waivers on Iranian and Russian oil-on-water were extended for a second 30-day period to curb rising global oil prices. OFAC’s General License 134B (April 17) covered approximately 95 million barrels on 244 Russian oil tankers, of which 38% were sanctioned and 29% rated by Windward as high-risk.
Thirty-three ships reversed course from Hormuz transits on April 18 after the IRGC fired on three vessels and reversed an order issued 24 hours earlier by Iran’s foreign minister to “completely open” the Strait.
Fears of Iranian drone attacks or seizures, and the threat of mines laid in the international traffic channel, are undermining shipowner and marine insurer confidence that safe transits can be undertaken. Daily transits are in the range of 7–20 ships, versus the pre-war average of 138.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps seized the Panama-flagged MSC Francesca (IMO 9401116) and Liberia-flagged Epaminondas (IMO 9153862). Both were linked to MSC, the world’s largest container line, which the IRGC said was banned from transits for perceived links to Israel. Both ships are now anchored 9 nm off the Iranian port of Seerik.
U.S. sanctions waivers on Iranian and Russian oil-on-water were extended for a second 30-day period to curb rising global oil prices. OFAC’s General License 134B (April 17) covered approximately 95 million barrels on 244 Russian oil tankers, of which 38% were sanctioned and 29% rated by Windward as high-risk.
Thirty-three ships reversed course from Hormuz transits on April 18 after the IRGC fired on three vessels and reversed an order issued 24 hours earlier by Iran’s foreign minister to “completely open” the Strait.
Fears of Iranian drone attacks or seizures, and the threat of mines laid in the international traffic channel, are undermining shipowner and marine insurer confidence that safe transits can be undertaken. Daily transits are in the range of 7–20 ships, versus the pre-war average of 138.
Oil Market’s Most Tumultuous Month in 50 Years
The oil market experienced its most turbulent month in 50 years, with more than 12 million barrels per day of crude exports wiped from the market and significant volumes drawn from strategic petroleum reserves:
Crude exports loaded west of Hormuz plunged 90% from pre-war levels in April. Shipments were tracked at 1.67 million bpd, according to Vortexa, compared with 16.5 million bpd in February, the last month of “normal” Hormuz transits.
Exports from Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Yanbu surged 400% as 4 million bpd of crude was redirected via the 1,200 km East-West (Petroline) pipeline.
Asia refinery throughput shrank as crude arrivals plunged. China, the world’s largest seaborne crude importer, reported a 25% month-over-month decline in oil shipments. Japan’s imports dropped 71% over two months.
The largest-ever LNG supply disruption entered its third month, with 20% of output still cut off from global markets.
Singapore, the world’s largest bunkering hub, began importing Russian fuel oil to compensate for missing Middle Eastern supply.
The UAE confirmed its exit from OPEC, complicating the cartel’s response to the price shock.
U.S. Blockade Imposed on Iran Ports From April 13
The U.S. blockade confined dozens of Iran’s vessels in the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea. On April 19, Windward satellite imagery detected seven VLCCs with a combined loading capacity of 14 million barrels.
A further 11 sanctioned tankers in the Arabian Sea and eight in the Gulf of Oman were effectively immobilized within the blockade’s first week, although two, including Vigor (IMO 9262156), were later detected via satellite imagery loading dark off Kharg Island.
Iranian-flagged VLCC Diona (IMO 9569695) switched off its AIS on March 27 after transiting the Strait of Malacca and was redirected by U.S. forces as it sailed toward Iran. It has now been identified at the southern edge of the Chabahar cluster.
Loadings from Iran’s crude export terminal at Kharg Island were measured at 2.2 million bpd in February and 1.25 million bpd in April. The post-blockade pace is around 600,000 bpd.
Adding to pressure, no VLCC or Suezmax laden with Iranian crude has transited the Strait of Malacca since April 24, the longest stretch since the war began. This is the clearest sign yet that Iranian crude is failing to reach Asia.
Vortexa data showed 153 million barrels of Iranian oil in transit, much of it stranded in floating storage west of Hormuz or accumulated in the Riau Archipelago.
Threats to Maritime Security Extended
Heightened maritime security threats were also observed across the Baltic and Black Seas, and off Somalia.
Ukraine intensified attacks on Russian port and refinery infrastructure at Primorsk, Ust-Luga, Tuapse, and Novorossiysk.
Drones struck two Russian shadow fleet tankers in the Black Sea, including the EU- and UK-sanctioned Marquise (IMO 9315745).
Two commercial vessels were hijacked off Somalia in April, with the UK Maritime Trade Office raising the maritime security threat level to “substantial”:
Honour 25 (Palau-flagged, 3,069 dwt product tanker, IMO 1099735), seized April 22 with 17 crew.
An 8,501 dwt cargo ship redirected to anchorage off Garacad on April 27.
A separate Iranian-flagged dhow, Al Waseemi 786, hijacked on March 24 approximately 400 nm east of Mogadishu and used as a pirate mothership, was abandoned on April 5 after EU naval intervention.
EU Adopts 20th Sanctions Package on Russia
The EU’s 20th Russia sanctions package was adopted on April 23, without the full maritime services ban initially proposed in January, according to the European Commission.
The package bans technical, financial, brokering, and insurance services to Russia-linked LNG tankers and icebreakers, and introduces a transaction ban on 20 Russian banks.
A mandatory “no Russia” clause is now incorporated into all tanker sale contracts.
China and Malaysia: The Next Iran Enforcement Frontier
Approximately 40% of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Malacca en route to Asia. The absence of Iranian-linked tankers since April 24 is a key indicator that the blockade is working.
Scrutiny has shifted to Malaysia’s Riau Archipelago and China’s “teapot” refineries, both central to sanctions evasion flows.
On April 24, the U.S. Department of the Treasury sanctioned 19 ships and Hengli Petrochemical (Dalian) as part of “Operation Economic Fury.”
The Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) also issued a sanctions alert naming five Chinese refineries in Shandong province.
Source: Windward
