For the first time in several decades, a new study reveals that more immigrants are departing from the US than are arriving, suggesting an early sign that President Trump’s stringent immigration policies are prompting individuals to leave, either through deportation or by their own choice. An analysis of recently released census data by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center indicates that between January and June, the foreign-born population in the US, encompassing both legal and illegal residents, has decreased by nearly 1.5 million. As of June, the immigrant population stood at 51.9 million, a decline from 53.3 million six months prior.
Officials from the Trump administration have praised this net outflow, claiming that the strain on government services has diminished and that the job market has improved. Additionally, some proponents of the immigration crackdown argue that the measures taken have not been stringent enough.
However, experts warn of potential adverse economic and demographic repercussions for the US if this trend continues. Immigrants play a vital role in various sectors of the workforce, and the nation’s dependence on them is increasing as more baby boomers retire.
Lillian Divina Leite, 46, opted to utilize the government’s new self-deportation program to return to Brazil. A housekeeper based in Charlotte, North Carolina, Leite expressed her anxiety upon witnessing immigrants.
Net migration, defined as the difference between the number of immigrants arriving and those departing, has become negative, a change that Jeffrey Passel, the chief demographer at Pew, referred to as a “demographic certainty” thus far in 2025.
His team’s analysis did not provide a distinct figure for immigrants lacking lawful status, who are likely to constitute the largest group of departures. This is due to the fact that increased enforcement has likely reduced the participation of immigrants in the census survey utilized for estimates, he noted.
They may have been under-counted, indicating that the decline may not be as drastic, or their low participation could obscure an even more significant decrease. The United States faced negative net immigration during the 1930s, amid the Great Depression.
“A rapid decline in immigration is going to cause economic harm,” stated Tara Watson, an economist at the Brookings Institution and one of the report’s authors.
Political resistance and legal challenges might prompt the Trump administration to relax its enforcement measures, thereby mitigating the impact, she added.
