Saudi Arabia crude oil exports declined strongly during the first half of 2026, as the Middle East war has taken its toll. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Banchero Costa said that “after a marginal decline in 2024, when global crude oil loadings decreased by -0.2% y-o-y, things picked up in 2025, with full-year volumes increasing by +1.8% y-o-y. In Jan-Jun 2026, however, global crude oil loadings declined by -6.1% y-o-y to 1,016.4 mln tonnes, excluding all cabotage trade, according to vessels tracking data from LSEG. Exports from the Arabian Gulf plunged by -30.7% y-o-y to 299.7 mln t in JanJun 2026, and accounted for 29.5% of global seaborne crude trade, down sharply from the historical norm of about 40%, reflecting the ongoing war in the Persian Gulf. Exports from Russian ports (including oil of Kazakh origin) edged up by +3.5% y-o-y to 117.1 mln t in Jan-Jun 2026, or 11.5% of global trade. From South America, exports surged by +31.5% y-o-y to 137.6 mln t. From the USA, exports increased by +20.5% y-o-y to 107.3 mln t in Jan-Jun 2026. From West Africa, exports decreased by -10.4% y-o-y to 78.2 mln t. From ASEAN exports jumped by +14.7% y-o-y to 59.8 mln t in Jan-Jun 2026 (this includes trans-shipped Iranian, Russian cargoes)”.
According to Banchero Costa, “in terms of demand (measured by arrival at discharge ports), the top seaborne importer of crude oil in JanJun 2026 was Mainland China, accounting for 20.5% of global trade. Volumes into China decreased by -14.2% y-o-y to 209.5 mln t in Jan-Jun 2026, from 244.1 mln t in Jan-Jun 2025. Imports into the EU27 up by +1.7% y-o-y to 227.6 mln t, accounting for 22.3% of global trade. To ASEAN, imports decreased by -9.7% y-o-y to 129.8 mln t. Imports to India declined by -0.3% y-o-y to 119.3 mln t in Jan-Jun 2026. To South Korea, imports declined by -18.5% y-o-y to 56.7 mln t. To Japan, imports fell by -22.5% y-o-y to 44.1 mln t in Jan-Jun 2026. Imports into the USA up by +8.9% y-oy to 62.8 mln t in Jan-Jun 2026”.
The shipbroker noted that “Saudi Arabia is the single largest seaborne exporter of crude oil in the world, ahead of Russia, the USA and Iraq. In 2025 it accounted for 14.4% of global seaborne crude oil exports. In the 12 months of 2025, Saudi seaborne crude oil exports declined by -0.4% to 319.4 mln tonnes, excluding cabotage, after declining by -4.6% y-oy in 2024. Volumes were still above the 310.2 mln tonnes of 2021. In Jan-Jun 2026, Saudi crude exports declined a further -22.0% y-o-y to 123.5 mln tonnes, from 158.4 mln t in the same period of 2025. About 91.3% of volumes loaded in Saudi Arabia in Jan-Jun 2026 were carried in VLCCs, 6.2% were carried in Suezmaxes, and 2.4% in Aframaxes. These proportions increased in recent years in favour of the largest tankers, as Suezmaxes and Aframaxes were diverted to carry Russian cargoes. The main crude oil export terminals in Saudi Arabia are: Yanbu (67.1 mln tonnes, or 54.4%, in Jan-Jun 2026), Ras Tanura (53.3 mln t, or 43.2%), Ras al Khafji (3.0 mln t, or 2.4%)”.
Banchero Costa added that “in terms of destinations for crude oil shipments from Saudi Arabia, the focus in recent years has clearly shifted to Asia. In Jan-Jun 2026, the top destination was Mainland China, accounting for 21.3% of the total Saudi crude exports, followed by South Korea with 15.1%, ASEAN with 13.1%, India with 12.4%, Japan with 10.8%, Taiwan with 3.5%. Direct shipments to the USA now account for just 2.9% of Saudi exports, and direct shipments to the European Union for just 0.7%. Another 14.7% of Saudi crude exports are shipped to the Ain Sukhna Terminal in Egypt to feed the Sumed pipeline, and will eventually mostly end up in Europe. In Jan-Jun 2026, Saudi Arabia shipped 26.3 mln tonnes of crude to Mainland China, which represents a -29.6% y-o-y decline from 37.4 mln tonnes in Jan Jun 2025.
The second top destination was South Korea, with 18.7 mln t, down by -25.9% y-o-y from 25.2 mln t in Jan-Jun 2025. Shipments from Saudi to ASEAN declined by -9.6% y-o-y in Jan-Jun 2026 to 16.2 mln tonnes. Volumes to India declined by -2.7% y-o-y in Jan-Jun 2026 to 15.3 mln t. Saudi Arabia also shipped 13.3 mln t this year to Japan, which represents a decline of -47.8% y-o-y from 25.5 mln t in the same period last year. Direct shipments to the EU increased by +79.3% y-o-y in Jan-Jun 2026 to 0.8 mln t, from 0.4 mln t in the same period last year”, the shipbroker concluded.
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
