Russian wheat production could reach 90 million tons in 2024 in a third straight bumper harvest following a favourable autumn sowing campaign, Agritel said on Tuesday.
“This estimate for the 2024-25 harvest suggests the record production seen over the past two years in Russia is here to stay,” Agritel, the agriculture analytics arm of Argus, said.
Combined with stocks, the harvest outlook would keep total Russian wheat supply above 100 million tons for a third straight season in 2024/25, it said in a note.
Russia, the world’s biggest wheat exporter, harvested a record crop in 2022 and this year’s production is expected to be its second largest.
Agritel, which does not include Crimea and other annexed regions of Ukraine in its Russia forecasts, estimates the 2022 crop at 96.5 million tons and 2023 output at 89.6 million tons.
The initial projection for next year’s crop included an expected 65.8 million tons of winter wheat and 24.2 million tons of spring wheat, which is mainly sown in April.
The winter wheat area is expected to rise, although by less than in official estimates, as some growers may switch to other crops depending on export taxes and profit margins, Agritel said.
A dry start to autumn caused some sowing delays but warm temperatures helped crops catch up in growth, the firm said.
Yields are expected broadly in line with this year’s harvest, it said.
Agritel first released its 2024 Russia wheat forecast to clients last week.
Source: Hellenic Shipping News