The fragile calm along the Israel-Lebanon border is once again under strain. While US-mediated talks along the Blue Line offer a narrow diplomatic opening, tensions on the ground remain high, with both sides effectively still at war.
This renewed friction is closely tied to the broader Iran-Israel-US confrontation. Recent escalations have drawn Hezbollah back into active engagement, challenging earlier assumptions that years of targeted strikes, leadership losses and financial pressure had significantly weakened the group.
Instead, Hezbollah appears to have adapted — remaining operationally capable, strategically patient and resilient under sustained pressure. The key question now is how much military leverage Lebanon truly holds, and how formidable Hezbollah’s arsenal remains.
A dual power structure
Lebanon’s security landscape operates on a complex dual system. The Lebanese Armed Forces function as the official military, but their role is largely defensive and constrained.
Alongside them, Hezbollah operates as a parallel force with its own command structure, intelligence network and logistics. Over decades, it has evolved from a guerrilla group into a hybrid force combining irregular tactics with elements of conventional warfare — a transformation heavily backed by Iranian funding, training and weapon supplies.
A force that adapted after 2024
Following the 2024 ceasefire, Israeli strikes targeted Hezbollah’s infrastructure, weapons depots and senior leadership, disrupting supply routes through Syria.
While this briefly created the perception of a weakened organisation, recent developments suggest otherwise. Hezbollah has resumed rocket fire, intensified drone activity and increased cross-border clashes, indicating a period of recalibration rather than decline.
The group appears to have decentralised its command, shifted to smaller operational units and prioritised mobility — allowing it to absorb losses while maintaining offensive capability.
Infantry strength and ground capability
At its core, Hezbollah’s strength lies in a vast inventory of infantry weapons. AK-series rifles remain the backbone, supplemented by American-made M16 and M4 rifles.
Support weapons include PK machine guns, Dragunov sniper rifles and heavy systems like the DShK and M2 Browning. This diverse arsenal ensures sustained combat capability across varied terrain and prolonged engagements.
Anti-tank systems: A key battlefield edge
Hezbollah’s anti-tank capabilities are among its most effective assets. From RPG-7 launchers for close combat to advanced guided systems like Kornet missiles, the group can target armoured vehicles with precision across multiple ranges.
This layered network — including Konkurs, Metis-M and TOW variants — has proven especially effective in ambush and defensive operations.
Rocket arsenal: Volume as deterrence
The backbone of Hezbollah’s deterrence lies in its extensive rocket stockpile.
Short-range Katyusha and Grad rockets allow mass saturation attacks, while medium-range systems like Fajr-5 extend reach deeper into Israeli territory. Long-range systems such as Zelzal rockets can strike strategic targets far beyond the border.
Mobility and volume remain key advantages, enabling sustained fire while avoiding detection.
Precision missiles: Strategic threat
Beyond volume, Hezbollah possesses precision-guided missiles such as the Fateh-110, capable of striking critical infrastructure with accuracy over long distances.
Though fewer in number, these weapons significantly raise the stakes in any escalation scenario.
Drones and modern warfare
Drone warfare has become central to Hezbollah’s evolving strategy. The group deploys unmanned systems for reconnaissance, attacks and tactical operations.
Many are locally assembled using imported components, making them cost-effective and harder to disrupt — a crucial advantage under supply constraints.
Expanding into naval capability
Hezbollah also maintains a limited naval dimension, including anti-ship missiles like the Yakhont. While not central to its strategy, this capability broadens the conflict’s scope and adds pressure on maritime security.
Resilience through local production
A major shift in Hezbollah’s strategy has been the move towards local production. By assembling rockets and drones domestically and decentralising manufacturing, the group has reduced reliance on external supply chains and increased resilience against targeted strikes.
A shifting battlefield equation
Despite sustained losses, Hezbollah retains tens of thousands of rockets, precision missiles, anti-tank systems and a growing drone fleet. This challenges the perception that it has been decisively weakened.
For Israel, Hezbollah remains the most immediate and complex threat on its northern border. Any large-scale military response carries risks of regional escalation and heavy casualties.
Meanwhile, Lebanon faces mounting pressure. Its leadership signals openness to diplomacy, but limited control over Hezbollah complicates de-escalation efforts.
Deterrence and uncertainty
The current phase of the conflict underscores a central reality: Hezbollah remains a resilient and adaptive force with a layered military capability.
Lebanon’s leverage against Israel is shaped less by its official military and more by Hezbollah’s strength — creating a balance that is both stabilising and deeply volatile.
