NEW DELHI: With Pakistan raising the alert across its air defense systems, India will need to exercise caution in weighing its military response, particularly for limited punitive strikes, due to the potential risk of escalation with a nuclear-armed neighbor.
“The Pakistani involvement in the Pahalgam massacre is clear. A range of military options, short of full-scale war, are available. It is ultimately up to the political leadership to decide. If authorized, retaliatory actions will be carried out at a time and place of our choosing,” a senior military officer told TOI following a series of high-level meetings on Wednesday.
The intent for cross-border retaliation, aligning with the Modi government’s strong stance on national security, was also underscored when Defence Minister Rajnath Singh addressed an IAF event later that day. He affirmed that swift and strong actions would be taken not only against the terrorists responsible for the Pahalgam massacre but also against those who orchestrated the attack.
Military leaders acknowledge that Pakistan is unlikely to be caught off-guard, as it was during the Balakot airstrikes in February 2019 and the surgical strikes in September 2016 that targeted terror launch pads along the Line of Control (LoC). With Pakistan’s military being better equipped than before, every potential option must be carefully evaluated, factoring in escalation risks and the broader geopolitical context.
Military officials suggest that “carefully-calibrated precision airstrikes” remain the most effective option for limited retaliation. Fighters like Rafales, Mirage-2000s, and Sukhoi-30MKIs, armed with long-range weapons such as the French Scalp air-to-ground cruise missiles, Israeli Crystal Maze missiles, and Spice-2000 precision bombs, could deliver targeted strikes on non-state actors.
“Surprise can be achieved on Day 1 with airborne strikes. However, following the Balakot strikes, Pakistan’s ‘Operation Swift Retort’ caught us off-guard because we let our guard down. We’ve learned from those lessons,” said another senior officer.
If India opts for airstrikes, it must be prepared for potential escalation. A less provocative option could involve breaking the ceasefire along the 778-km LoC, which has largely held since February 2021. This would entail artillery and mortar fire, along with sniping and other operations to disrupt Pakistani patrols in forward areas. “Such measures can effectively raise the costs for the adversary,” an officer noted.
Another option would be to conduct shallow raids to target makeshift terror launch pads close to Pakistani army posts along the LoC. These sites, which facilitate the quick movement of terrorists into Indian territory, are estimated to house 110-120 militants in 42 launch pads, with 32 located south of the Pir Panjal range. “Terror launch pads near the LoC are prime targets,” said an officer.
In the event of further escalation, India could supplement artillery barrages with longer-range standoff weapons such as the 90-km range Smerch and 45-km Pinaka rocket systems, as well as the BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles, which now have an extended strike range of 450 km.
