NEW DELHI: India may have taken a significant step in the evolution of its nuclear deterrence strategy by beginning the deployment of a limited number of nuclear warheads on delivery platforms, according to the latest assessment by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
In its annual report, the respected global peace and security think tank estimated that India’s nuclear arsenal increased from approximately 180 warheads in January 2025 to around 190 warheads by January 2026. More notably, SIPRI suggested that India may have started deploying a small number of nuclear warheads on operational delivery systems, marking a potential shift from its long-standing practice of storing warheads and launch platforms separately during peacetime.
A deployed nuclear warhead is one that is already mounted on a missile or loaded onto an aircraft or submarine-based launch system, making it available for immediate operational use if required.
According to SIPRI, India’s recent advancements in canisterised missile systems and the increasing operational role of its sea-based nuclear deterrent indicate a possible transition towards mating some nuclear warheads with their launchers even during peacetime.
“It has long been assumed that India stores its nuclear warheads separate from its deployed launchers during peacetime. However, the country’s recent moves towards placing missiles in canisters and conducting sea-based deterrence patrols suggest that India could be shifting in the direction of mating some of its warheads with their launchers in peacetime,” the report stated.
The assessment indicates that India may have deployed approximately 12 nuclear warheads aboard a single nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) undertaking periodic deterrence patrols. Such a move would represent a major milestone in the maturation of India’s nuclear triad—the capability to deliver nuclear weapons from land, air and sea platforms.
India’s sea-based deterrent currently consists of three SSBNs: INS Arihant, INS Arighaat and INS Aridhaman, the latter reportedly commissioned in April 2026. A fourth SSBN, reportedly named INS Arisudan, is expected to join the fleet in 2027.
SIPRI noted that India’s nuclear arsenal is now assigned to a growing and increasingly sophisticated triad of delivery systems. The report estimated that the Indian Air Force maintains nuclear-capable Jaguar IS and Mirage 2000H aircraft, while the land-based missile component includes Prithvi-II, Agni-I, Agni-II, Agni-III, Agni-IV and Agni-V ballistic missiles.
Particular attention was drawn to the Agni-V intermediate-range ballistic missile, which is believed to possess Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicle (MIRV) capability. This technology enables a single missile to carry several nuclear warheads capable of striking different targets. A test conducted in March 2024 reportedly demonstrated the missile’s ability to deploy multiple re-entry vehicles.
The report also highlighted ongoing development programmes, including the Agni-P medium-range ballistic missile and the longer-range Agni-VI, which is widely regarded as India’s future intercontinental ballistic missile project.
Despite the reported changes in deployment practices, SIPRI noted that there has been no alteration in India’s official nuclear doctrine. The country continues to adhere to its declared “No First Use” policy, under which nuclear weapons would only be used in retaliation to a nuclear attack.
The report found that Pakistan’s nuclear stockpile remained largely unchanged at approximately 170 warheads. However, both India and Pakistan continued to modernise their nuclear forces during 2025 and are pursuing technologies that would allow ballistic missiles to carry multiple warheads.
Globally, SIPRI estimated that nine nuclear-armed states—the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel—collectively possessed approximately 12,187 nuclear weapons as of January 2026. Of these, around 9,745 warheads were held in military stockpiles and considered potentially available for operational use.
While the overall global nuclear inventory continues to decline, SIPRI cautioned that the reduction is primarily the result of the United States and Russia dismantling retired weapons. At the same time, most nuclear-armed states are actively modernising their arsenals, developing new delivery systems and enhancing operational readiness, signalling a renewed era of nuclear competition.
Key Takeaway: SIPRI’s assessment does not indicate a change in India’s No First Use doctrine, but it suggests that India’s nuclear forces may be moving towards greater operational readiness through limited warhead deployment, particularly within its expanding sea-based deterrent capability.
