New containership capacity is set to outpace demand as world trade volume growth slows from 5.0% in 2025 to 4.7% in 2027, according to a Sea-Intelligence analysis of the IMF’s October 2026 World Economic Outlook.
Import demand growth in advanced economies is projected at 5.0% in 2026 before easing to 4.2% in 2027, leaving trade growth too weak to absorb all the newly built vessel capacity entering service.
Direct trade between the US and China has also contracted following tariffs introduced in 2025. Chinese exports shipped directly to the US fell 22% over 12 months, while US exports to China dropped 25%. Overall trade volumes have remained more resilient as cargo flows shifted to other markets.
Chinese producers redirected 52% of their products to other Asian countries, while US exporters redirected 17%. Parts that previously moved directly from China to the US are increasingly routed through countries including Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia, where products are assembled before being shipped to the US. The additional stages keep trade volumes steady but add port calls, increase logistics complexity and raise costs for manufacturers and shippers.
The artificial intelligence boom is creating a different trade effect. AI hardware trade has reached record highs relative to global GDP, while the physical weight of those goods has barely increased, indicating that rising values rather than cargo volumes are driving the increase.
Microprocessors are normally transported by air, while heavier materials required to build AI data centres move in ocean containers, adding heavy cargo volumes for container shipping lines.
Sea-Intelligence operates through Sea-Intelligence Pte Ltd in Singapore and Sea-Intelligence ApS in Denmark and provides research, data and advisory services focused on container shipping and global supply chains.
The International Monetary Fund is an international organisation that monitors the global economy and publishes the World Economic Outlook twice a year.
