India’s agricultural sector is facing renewed concerns as the possibility of a strong El Niño event threatens to weaken the southwest monsoon and disrupt farming activities during the ongoing kharif season. However, experts and policymakers draw confidence from recent years when the country successfully managed the impact of rainfall deficits without a significant decline in foodgrain production.
The last major drop in foodgrain output linked to El Niño occurred in 2015, a year marked by severe drought conditions. Since then, India has demonstrated greater resilience, including in 2023 when a strong El Niño contributed to below-normal monsoon rainfall, yet foodgrain production remained stable. The country also achieved record foodgrain output in 2018 despite receiving below-normal rainfall due to other climatic factors.
Agricultural resilience has been strengthened through expanded irrigation networks, wider adoption of micro-irrigation systems such as drip and sprinkler technologies, cultivation of less water-intensive crops, and the use of drought-resistant seed varieties. These measures have helped reduce dependence on monsoon rainfall and improve farmers’ ability to cope with weather uncertainties.
This year, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast below-normal rainfall during the June-September monsoon season, with a 60% probability of deficient rainfall. The warning has raised concerns about potential drought-like conditions, particularly as the country has already recorded a cumulative monsoon rainfall deficit of more than 35% since the monsoon’s onset on June 4. The shortfall has affected sowing operations in several regions.
In response, Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan has directed officials to intensify preparedness measures. Coordinated meetings involving district administrations, Krishi Vigyan Kendras (KVKs), and agricultural extension agencies are being organised in states expected to face the most severe impact.
Twelve states, including Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh, have been identified as particularly vulnerable during the current kharif season.
Authorities have identified 197 districts as highly vulnerable to El Niño-related disruptions, while contingency plans are being prepared in 326 districts nationwide. The government hopes that proactive planning and drought-mitigation strategies will help safeguard crop production and minimize the impact of any prolonged rainfall deficit.
As the monsoon progresses, the performance of rainfall in the coming weeks will be closely monitored, with agriculture officials focusing on ensuring that farmers receive timely support to maintain productivity despite challenging weather conditions.
