The latest Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has surpassed 1,000 confirmed cases, prompting renewed concern among public health experts after a new study warned that the virus has a high probability of spreading further into neighbouring countries.
According to a modelling study published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases, there is nearly a 70 per cent chance that the outbreak could spread to South Sudan in the coming weeks unless strict surveillance and disease control measures are maintained.
As of June 22, 2026, the DRC had reported 1,048 laboratory-confirmed Ebola cases and 267 deaths. The outbreak has already crossed the border into Uganda, where several linked infections have been confirmed.
Six-Week Delay Allowed Virus to Spread
Researchers found that the outbreak likely began around April 1, but was not officially declared until May 15, allowing the virus to circulate undetected for nearly six weeks.
The delayed detection is believed to have contributed significantly to the rapid rise in infections before containment measures were implemented.
Bundibugyo Strain Presents Additional Challenge
The current outbreak is caused by the Bundibugyo strain of the Ebola virus, for which there is currently no approved vaccine, making rapid detection, isolation, contact tracing and public health interventions even more critical.
According to the World Health Organization (WHO), Ebola virus disease is a severe illness that typically causes fever, weakness, vomiting, diarrhoea and, in some cases, internal and external bleeding.
Dr. (Col.) Vijay Dutta, Director of Internal Medicine and Respiratory Services at ISIC Multispeciality Hospital, explained that Ebola spreads through direct contact with the blood, body fluids or contaminated materials of an infected person.
“Ebola is a serious viral illness that may lead to a high fever, general weakness, muscle pain, vomiting, diarrhoea and, in extreme cases, internal or external bleeding,” he said.
He emphasised that the disease is not airborne and becomes contagious only after symptoms develop, meaning it does not spread through casual contact or simply by sharing the same space with an infected individual.
High Risk for Neighbouring Countries
The modelling study assessed the likelihood of the outbreak spreading beyond the DRC over the next 12 weeks.
Researchers estimated the risk of importation at:
- Uganda: 94.2%
- South Sudan: 69.3%
- Rwanda: 8.6%
- Burundi: 2%
Uganda has already confirmed Ebola cases linked to the current outbreak, including infections among healthcare workers.
In response, international health agencies have strengthened border surveillance, contact tracing and screening measures.
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has also issued travel advisories for both the DRC and Uganda while introducing enhanced screening procedures for travellers arriving from affected regions.
Experts Urge Vigilance, Not Panic
Health experts caution that although Ebola has a high fatality rate and often attracts widespread attention, the outbreak should not trigger unnecessary panic.
Dr. Dutta said outbreaks can escalate rapidly when public health measures are delayed, but countries with strong healthcare systems and disease surveillance remain at relatively low risk.
“These research papers demonstrate that if public health steps aren’t taken early, outbreaks can rapidly escalate because they are difficult to detect and the population moves and comes in contact with other people,” he said.
“But it should be known that an outbreak in a particular region is not necessarily a global threat. Overall, the risk to countries with good healthcare and disease surveillance is low.”
He added that while the public should remain informed, there is no need for undue alarm.
“Individuals need to be warned, but not frightened,” he said.
Experts stress that rapid case detection, effective contact tracing, community cooperation and strong public health responses remain the most effective tools for containing Ebola outbreaks and preventing further cross-border transmission.
