Colombia’s position in the global coal market is undergoing a structural shift; robust exports, renewed access to the Israeli market and frequent disruptions to its logistics infrastructure are shaping the outlook for Atlantic coal flows. While Colombia’s coal supply remains exposed to operational risks, the policy under the new Colombian administration has been supporting trade and is likely to boost exports over the medium term.
Colombia’s strategic position on the Caribbean coast gives access to both Atlantic and Mediterranean markets, while long-haul trade to Asia can generate greater tonne-mile demand as the country’s exports recover. The impact on vessel demand will also depend on the destinations of these cargoes.
The country’s coal exports jumped to 23.5 million tonnes YoY, up 17.4% YTD. July volumes were low, with exports falling 13.6% YoY to 4.1 million tonnes, indicating the recovery has not been entirely linear. Nevertheless, the country’s coal industry has already been operating below its historical production potential. Cerrejon, the country’s largest coal mine, produced 16.8 million tonnes in 2025, down from 19.2 million tonnes in 2024. The company attributed this fall to difficult economic conditions in the seaborne thermal coal market and lower production was intended to improve efficiency and reduce costs amid unsustainable seaborne thermal coal prices.
This is why the revival in exports should not necessarily be interpreted as a structural expansion in supply. Rather, it represents a recovery from a relatively constrained base, while the country’s ability to increase output remains dependent on mining economics, logistics and government policy.’
Also, with the EU emerging as Colombia’s largest coal destination in 2026, accounting for around 21% of exports, stronger Colombian flows into the ARA region have coincided with firmer Colombia-ARA spot rates.
Cerrejon rail disruption highlights the vulnerability of Colombian supply
The operational side of the market remains a key constraint. Cerrejon reported an attack in August on its railway infrastructure in La Guajira near the company’s 150-km rail line. The railway connects the Cerrejon mine to Puerto Bolivar, its Caribbean export terminal, making this the fifth attack on its infrastructure in 2026. This disruption is relevant to the seaborne market because railways are an integral link between mine production and export capacity. A prolonged interruption would not eliminate Colombian coal from the market, but it could delay cargoes and increase waiting times.
Therefore, the impact is assessed by export capacity rather than by mines production. Even when coal remains available at the mine, rail disruptions can prevent it from reaching ports on time, leading to congestion at the loading end and reducing effective vessel supply in the region supporting freight.
This rail incident was followed by a major earthquake, with the government declaring an economic and ecological emergency due to damage across multiple departments. However, no major disruption was reported to Colombia’s major coal mining or export infrastructure.
Israel’s market reopening can restore demand outlet for Colombian coal
The most important structural development came from the policy. Colombia’s previous administration introduced a ban on thermal coal exports to Israel in 2024. The restriction was tightened in 2025, prohibiting Colombian thermal coal exports to Israel without any exception.
The new administration has now reversed this policy, resuming Colombian coal exports to Israel. In 2023, Colombia exported 3.04 million tonnes of coal to Israel, becoming the largest coal supplier that year. Therefore, the reopening restores access to an established market rather than creating an entirely new trade lane.
However, the effect will be gradual, as Colombia is unlikely to export massive volumes as before, since its producers have redirected some of their output to other destinations after the ban and reduced their reliance on coal as they transition to natural gas. South Africa’s share of Israel’s seaborne coal imports reached 60% in 2025, helping replace Colombian and Russian volumes.
This will support the Capesize market, along with the country’s loading position, which can support long-haul Atlantic-to-Mediterranean and Atlantic-to-Asia employment, enabling Kamsarmax and Ultramax vessels to participate as well, depending on cargo size and draft restrictions.
The long-term outlook is more significant than the immediate impact, as Colombia’s coal industry association has forecast that national coal production could recover to around 90 million tonnes by 2030, up from 53 million tonnes in 2026, but achieving this level would require changes to freight, port costs, licensing procedures and controls on illegal mining. However, the path to higher production is not straightforward. Cerrejon’s recent decline in production demonstrates the pressure weak thermal coal economics can place on Colombian output, while repeated disruptions to rail infrastructure highlights logistics reliability.
Conclusion
Overall, Colombia’s coal outlook is becoming more constructive, although near-term operational disruptions remain a key constraint. The reopening of the Israeli market could diversify export flows and support additional long-haul tonne-mile demand, while a recovery in production could further expand Colombia’s seaborne export base. For the dry bulk market, sustained growth in Colombian exports to longer-haul destinations could provide additional employment opportunities for Panamax and Kamsarmax vessels.
Source: Drewry
