Climate change is reducing crop yields, disrupting food supply chains and driving food inflation in India, with economic losses affecting farmers, retailers and consumers, according to a white paper released by research-based consulting initiative Climate Trends.
The report, titled From Risk to Resilience: Climate Change, Ecology and the Future of Indian Agriculture, highlights the combined impact of rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, extreme weather events and ecological degradation on agricultural production and rural livelihoods.
Research cited in the paper estimates that a 1°C rise in temperature over the past five decades has reduced average crop yields by around 8%. Wheat production could decline by up to 23% by 2050, while maize yields have recorded losses of up to 16%.
The impact extends beyond farms, with heat and inadequate storage contributing to substantial food losses. India loses 30-40% of its fruits and vegetables, while limited cold-chain infrastructure contributes to annual food losses estimated at $13 billion.
Extreme weather is also driving food inflation. The report cited an RBI study linking temperature deviations to rising vegetable prices and noted that heatwaves in 2024 pushed onion prices up by 80%.
Climate-related losses in paddy, wheat and maize could amount to 0.28-1.02% of India’s GDP by 2050, according to estimates cited in the paper.
The report calls for a transition towards agroecological farming practices, including crop diversification, soil restoration, water conservation and reduced dependence on chemical inputs.
It also recommends reforms in agricultural subsidies, procurement, insurance and credit, alongside stronger weather advisories, climate-resilient seeds and decentralized storage facilities.
Citing Andhra Pradesh’s community-managed natural farming programme as an example, the paper argues that agroecology can improve farmer incomes, reduce water use and lower emissions.
The report stresses that the transition must be supported by adequate financing, research and market access to protect farmers’ livelihoods while strengthening India’s long-term food security.
