MUMBAI: India’s 2025 Southwest Monsoon has ended with “above normal” rainfall — 108% of the long-period average (LPA) — marking the second consecutive year of excess precipitation across the country. The Mumbai Metropolitan Region recorded nearly 20% more rainfall than its seasonal average, with suburban Mumbai logging the second-highest surplus after Palghar, followed by Raigad and Thane.
A new analysis by Climate Trends revealed that five of the past ten monsoon seasons have seen above-normal rainfall. About 45% of India’s landmass experienced extreme rainfall this year, underscoring how climate change is transforming the monsoon by producing fewer rainy days but more intense downpours.
Western and northern Maharashtra saw 20% surplus rain, while Marathwada and Vidarbha — both drought-prone regions — registered 39% and 14% surpluses respectively. Since 1950, extreme rainfall events have tripled across India, leading to recurring floods. Experts attribute this spike to increased atmospheric moisture driven by rising global temperatures.
Between 2016 and 2025, India recorded above-normal rainfall in five years, normal in two, and below normal in three — a trend scientists link to global warming’s growing influence over traditional monsoon factors like El Niño and La Niña.
The effects are widespread: localised floods, landslides, and river surges have become common even in historically dry regions. In the core monsoon zone — covering much of central India — states such as Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and Maharashtra saw excess rainfall. Gujarat led with 25% above-average rain, followed by Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra, where most districts reported normal to surplus conditions.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) defines rainfall between 96–104% of the LPA as “normal” and anything above 104% as “above normal.”
“The number of rainy days has gone down, but the intensity has increased,” said K. J. Ramesh, former IMD Director General. Mahesh Palawat of Skymet Weather added, “There’s been a rise in cloudburst-like situations.” Dr. A. P. Dimri, Director of the Indian Institute of Geomagnetism, noted an uptick in secondary western disturbances amplifying these weather shifts.
