Canada’s Liberal Party has secured a fourth consecutive term, completing a dramatic political revival and marking a landmark victory for former central banker and political newcomer Mark Carney. Carney now prepares to face heightened tensions with U.S. President Donald Trump.
By late Monday, the Liberals had won or were leading in enough ridings to block any other party from forming a government, according to national broadcaster CBC. As early results rolled in from the Atlantic provinces and the crucial, populous regions of Quebec and Ontario, cheers erupted among supporters gathered for the Liberals’ election night celebrations.
It remains uncertain whether the Liberals will command a majority or be forced into a minority government. A minority would require Carney’s Liberals to collaborate with political opponents to pass legislation—similar to the previous term when the Liberals depended on the New Democratic Party’s support.
The victory marks a stunning turnaround for a party that, until recently, seemed destined for electoral disaster. Justin Trudeau, Carney’s predecessor, served nearly a decade as prime minister, but the final years of his leadership were marred by internal strife, plummeting popularity, and widespread voter fatigue.
As recently as late 2024, internal party discussions reflected a grim outlook: at best, Liberals hoped merely to limit the Conservatives to a minority government. A full-fledged victory was considered far out of reach.
“We were dead and buried in December. Now we’re going to form a government,” said former Liberal Justice Minister David Lametti on CTV late Monday. “We turned this around thanks to Mark,” he added.
Observers say the political landscape shifted dramatically following Trump’s controversial remarks threatening to annex Canada and his belittling of Trudeau as merely a “governor.” Trump’s rhetoric and economic threats triggered widespread anger and a surge of nationalist sentiment across Canada.
“The shift in the polls was absolutely without precedent,” said David Coletto, CEO of polling firm Abacus. “But the honeymoon phase that followed—and how strongly the support held—is just as extraordinary. Globally, I can’t think of another example of such a complete political reset. It’s the result of two factors: Justin Trudeau’s deep unpopularity, and Donald Trump’s emergence as a direct and existential threat to Canada.”
For the Conservatives, the result is a crushing disappointment. After months of demanding an election, the party, under Pierre Poilievre’s leadership, appeared poised to win. But within weeks of Trump’s inflammatory statements and Carney’s emergence as Liberal leader, the Conservatives’ 25-point lead disintegrated. Coming so close to victory only to lose is expected to spark a period of internal reckoning and debate over the future of the Conservative movement.
For Carney, who had served as prime minister for just nine days before calling the snap election, the gamble was high. Victory would not only secure a historic comeback for the Liberals but also spare him the ignominy of becoming Canada’s shortest-serving prime minister.
“I saw how Carney carried himself, and he really met the moment,” said Ian Laroque, a campaign volunteer from Carney’s Ottawa riding. “He’s not a polished politician, but he’s the leader we need right now. It’s not every day you get an economist stepping up during an economic crisis.”
Monday’s election was historic in other ways as well: for the first time in nearly seven decades, the two dominant parties—the Liberals and Conservatives—captured more than 80% of the vote, reflecting the collapse of smaller parties like the left-wing New Democratic Party and the separatist Bloc Québécois.
