Even as top AI labs such as OpenAI and Anthropic weigh whether to deliberately slow down given concerns over unchecked model capabilities, a separate and more immediate problem may force a slowdown across the tech sector: an acute shortage of specialised talent in hardware manufacturing. A joint report from McKinsey and the SEMI Foundation projects that the US could face a shortfall of up to 157,000 semiconductor specialists and technicians by 2030 — a gap made more troubling by the fact that it comes just as the Trump administration tightens immigration policy across the board, adding new hurdles for immigrant categories, guest-worker visas, permanent residency applications, and existing travel permits.
New rules, a proposed $103,265 H-1B fee, and a thinning talent pool
The revised regulations create fresh obstacles for different groups of applicants. H-1B visa holders and their dependents now face tougher scrutiny, along with a proposed filing fee that would jump to $103,265. At the same time, green card applicants in employment categories are being evaluated under a stricter “public charge” standard. Industry figures say these narrowing pathways are choking off the talent pipeline. Jon Taylor, executive vice president of Samsung’s semiconductor division in Austin, Texas, told CNBC he was worried there simply aren’t enough technically trained people coming through the pipeline. McKinsey’s data backs this up: only about 3% of engineering graduates in the US go on to work in the chip industry each year, leaving 73% of semiconductor employers facing serious hiring shortfalls.
A race against time for domestic chip plants
This labour shortage comes at a critical moment, as the US pushes ahead with its largest-ever domestic manufacturing expansion to produce advanced logic processors and memory chips at home. In Arizona, TSMC and Intel already have fabrication plants turning out next-generation logic chips. Samsung is set to become the next major overseas manufacturer to begin logic chip production domestically, with the first of two plants in Taylor, Texas, expected to start operations later this year — part of a $35 billion investment in the region that Samsung says will create around 3,500 jobs. Taylor noted that companies are simultaneously hiring engineers, technicians and supply-chain staff, all competing for the same limited pool of talent as new facilities come online.
While the US pioneered semiconductor technology and still leads in chip architecture, most commercial chip manufacturing shifted to Asia decades ago, and the specialised workforce followed. To address the resulting gap, Idaho-based Micron has been running rapid-hiring drives at technical schools in South Korea, interviewing candidates and making same-day full-time job offers for roles at its Asian facilities.
