The maritime industry’s path forward demands continuous intelligence, flexible contracting, and recognition that regional ceasefires don’t guarantee unified de-escalation across Middle Eastern waters. Saleem Khan, Chief Data & Analytics Officer, Pole Star Global explains.
The Paradox
The maritime industry faces a paradox: recently Yemen’s Houthi rebels signalled a cessation of Red Sea attacks following the recent Gaza ceasefire. Around the same time, Iran executed its first vessel seizure in months, seizing the Marshall Islands-flagged tanker Talara in the Strait of Hormuz on Friday, 14 November 2025. These two developments underscore a critical reality: regional maritime security remains fragmented, unpredictable, and expensive.
After 690 days of Houthi attacks that killed nine mariners and sank four vessels, the conditional ceasefire offers cautious optimism. Yet, Suez Canal traffic remains at historic lows, averaging just 36 vessels daily in 2025 compared to 74 in 2023. Insurance premiums tell the story though and insurers aren’t convinced. Red Sea war-risk rates remain elevated despite the announcement; as underwriters demand proof through multiple safe transits, before reducing coverage costs that currently add tens of thousands of dollars per voyage.
Iran’s seizure of the Talara, carrying 30,000 tons of petrochemicals through waters handling 20% of global oil trade, signals Tehran’s willingness to reassert control in the Strait of Hormuz. The incident prompted war-risk premiums in the Middle East Gulf to double within days, while hull and machinery insurance jumped 60%.
Impact on Safe Passage
These developments have an impact on safe passage and come with three key implications:
1. Bifurcated Geographic Risk: The Red Sea may experience gradual normalisation while Persian Gulf risks intensify, forcing carriers to reassess route optimisation strategies across two distinct zones simultaneously.
2. Insurance Market Volatility: War-risk premiums will remain fluid and regionally specific, with 24-hour quote validities and 96-hour cancellation clauses now standard practice, eliminating predictable cost structures for voyage planning.
3. Extended Cape Routing Persistence: Despite the Houthi pause, major carriers will maintain Cape of Good Hope diversions through at least Q2 2026, sustaining 10-14 day transit delays and suppressing Suez Canal revenues while creating potential freight rate collapse when capacity eventually returns.
Stakeholder Actions
Stakeholders across the supply chain can implement various measures to deal with these challenges. Fleet owners should consider implementing dynamic voyage insurance strategies with multiple underwriters, rather than single-carrier contracts. Exploring the use of real-time intelligence platforms for routing decisions that balance premium costs against time-charter economics is also advised.
In comparison, cargo insurers ought to adopt granular, passage-level risk assessment using vessel ownership transparency data and beneficial owner verification to differentiate premium pricing. They would also do well to consider fleet-based bundling arrangements for operators with strong compliance records.
Port authorities can act by enhancing berth scheduling flexibility to accommodate last-minute routing changes. It is also recommended to coordinate with maritime security agencies on threat intelligence, sharing protocols for vessels calling from high-risk transit zones.
Vessel crews can act by verifying that comprehensive war-risk coverage explicitly includes Red Sea and Persian Gulf waters before transit; and it is worthwhile maintaining heightened vigilance for GPS jamming and AIS interference, particularly near the Straits of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb chokepoints.
Conclusion
Maritime intelligence will play a key role in enabling the maritime sector to navigate this period of complexity and uncertainty now and into the future. As part of this, ship operators, ports, logistics teams, and financial institutions will need access to real-time intelligence tools in order to make better decisions. This intelligence must enable teams to detect shipment route deviations, to identify spoofing and provide early warning signs of risks displayed through data. Integrating this into operations will enable organisations to protect all aspects of their maritime operations.
Source: Pole Star
