Sales of U.S. soybeans to China will partly dent demand for the Brazilian product this year from the world’s largest importer, Sergio Mendes, head of grain traders lobby Anec, said in an interview.
In a video call, Mendes said Brazilian soybean traders are expected to ship 77 million metric tons of the oilseed to China in 2026, ten million tons less than in 2025.
Part of the volumes previously directed to China may be shipped to Brazil’s other traditional clients in Asia and Europe, he said citing Spain, Thailand, Turkey and Iran.
Overall, Brazilian soy shipments are projected to reach a record 112 million tons this year, compared with around 109 million tons in 2025, according to Anec’s fresh forecasts shared with Reuters first.
“Considering the resumption of soybean supply by the United States, Brazil should maintain the export volumes observed in recent seasons, with at least 70% of that total destined for China,” Anec said in a statement after the interview.
“In absolute terms, this represents an estimated volume of at least 77 million tons,” it added.
China’s total purchases from the latest U.S. crop are estimated at 8.5 million to nearly 10 million tons, representing up to 80% of the 12 million metric tons that U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China pledged to buy by the end of February.
Last year, Brazil’s soy exports were around 109 million tons, slightly below the 110 million tons forecast by Anec as rains hampered shipments in December, Mendes said.
He added January soybean shipments will partly make up for volumes that were not exported in December.
Anec also projects 24 million tons of soymeal exports from Brazil this year, and 44 million tons of corn, according to Mendes.
Source: Reuters
