LOUISVILLE, KENTUCKY: At least twelve people were killed and 11 others injured after a UPS cargo jet burst into flames during take-off from Louisville Muhammad Ali International Airport on Tuesday. The MD-11 aircraft, bound for Honolulu, Hawaii, failed to gain altitude before crashing in a fiery explosion that lit up the runway and surrounding buildings.
According to early assessments by aviation experts and footage verified by the BBC, multiple technical and mechanical issues may have contributed to the catastrophic failure. Video clips show the jet’s left wing engulfed in flames moments before it hit the ground, scattering debris across the tarmac.
Authorities issued a shelter-in-place order as hundreds of firefighters worked through thick smoke to contain the blaze, which spread to nearby structures, including a fuel recycling facility.
Below are seven key theories aviation analysts are examining:
- Left Engine Failure or Detachment
Experts believe the left engine may have suffered a catastrophic malfunction or even detached during take-off. Verified footage shows the left wing ablaze and dipping sharply as the aircraft attempted to lift off.
Retired airline pilot Terry Tozer noted that in-flight engine separation is “almost unheard of,” citing the 1979 American Airlines Flight 191 tragedy as a rare precedent. Images from the scene later showed a charred engine lying beside the runway.
- Damage to the Tail Engine
Aviation operations lecturer Marco Chan of Buckinghamshire New University observed that the centre tail engine appeared to emit smoke before impact. The intense fire and debris from the left wing may have damaged the tail-mounted engine, significantly reducing thrust and leaving the jet with limited power output.
- Fire Consuming the Left Wing
Footage verified by the BBC shows flames rapidly consuming the left wing as the aircraft accelerated to 214 mph (344 km/h). Analysts suggest the fire may have penetrated the fuel system, triggering or intensifying the mid-air explosion that followed seconds later.
- Power Imbalance from Engine Loss
With both the left and centre engines reportedly compromised, the right engine alone would have been insufficient to sustain lift. “Losing two engines during take-off leaves the aircraft with only a third of its power and minimal control, especially at maximum weight,” Chan explained.
- Heavy Fuel Load
The MD-11 carried roughly 38,000 gallons (144,000 litres) of fuel for the long trans-Pacific route. The massive fuel weight may have hindered the jet’s climb performance and amplified the post-crash fireball. Chan added, “That heavy load explains the scale of the explosion and the fires that spread to surrounding buildings.”
- Mechanical or Structural Failure
Investigators are also exploring whether prior maintenance issues or structural fatigue in the left engine contributed to its failure. Tozer said pre-existing stress fractures or loose mountings could have led to the engine’s detachment during high-thrust take-off.
- Collision with Ground Objects
Some analysts have speculated that the jet may have struck debris or an object on the runway, sparking the initial fire. Footage suggests that flames intensified immediately after impact, spreading rapidly toward nearby airport structures.
Aftermath and Investigation
The 34-year-old MD-11 aircraft, converted from passenger service in 2006, had completed a return flight earlier the same day. Officials have not yet confirmed what cargo was onboard.
The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) has deployed a full investigation team to the site. Investigators will examine engine integrity, flight data, debris patterns, and maintenance logs to determine how the initial fire began and whether structural or human factors were involved.
Weather conditions at the time were calm and clear, ruling out environmental causes.
As recovery crews continue to assess the damage, the tragedy raises fresh questions about the aging fleet of MD-11 cargo aircraft and the mechanical stresses involved in long-haul freight operations.
