India currently stands as the largest recipient of the H-1B visa program, making it likely to experience the most significant effects from the proposed wage-based visa distribution.
The initiative by the Trump administration to reform the existing H-1B lottery system in a way that favors higher-skilled and higher-paid foreign workers is anticipated to disadvantage entry-level talent, especially those from India.
India currently holds the position of the largest beneficiary of the H-1B visa program, and therefore is expected to face the most considerable losses from this proposed reform. In 2024, out of 399,395 approved H-1B visas, Indian nationals accounted for a notable 71%, while China followed far behind with only 11.7%.
In light of the significant increase in the H-1B visa fee to $100,000, the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has now proposed replacing the random lottery with a weighted selection system that prioritizes applications with higher salaries.
If the annual demand for H-1B visas surpasses the statutory cap of 85,000 or if demand exceeds supply, the allocation process would give preference to applications from employers offering higher wages.
Will the selection process be exclusively based on higher wages?
The DHS has suggested changes that prioritize applications from higher-paid foreign workers in the H-1B program, but this does not mean that visa allocation would be determined solely by salary. The process “would favor the allocation of H-1B visas to higher skilled and higher paid aliens, while maintaining the opportunity for employers to secure H-1B workers at all wage levels,” as outlined in the proposal.
According to a Bloomberg report, under the proposed plan, applicants will be classified into four wage levels based on Labour Department data. Those in the highest wage level will have four chances in the selection pool, while those in the lowest level will have only one.
Impact on India’s entry-level workforce
Considering that India stands to gain the most from the H-1B visa program, its citizens are likely to be the most adversely affected by the substantial proposed alterations put forth by US President Donald Trump, including the $100,000 visa fee and the skill-level and wage-based distribution.
As reported by the Heritage Institute, a conservative think tank, a significant portion of H-1B roles is filled by entry-level workers from India and China in their mid-twenties, who receive compensation below the median wage.
Sophie Alcorn, an immigration attorney located in Silicon Valley, further emphasizes that the proposed changes are expected to significantly impact entry-level foreign workers.
“The introduction of a wage-based lottery system would diminish the overall demand for skilled immigration, particularly affecting those aspiring immigrants who are entry-level workers,” the attorney remarked.
In light of the proposed increase in the visa fee to $100,000, the recommended changes to the H-1B allocation system emerge amidst claims from US conservatives that companies are misusing the program to hire cheaper foreign labor, thus undermining American talent.
Both the proposed increase in the H-1B visa fee and the suggestion for wage-based visa selection are anticipated to encounter legal challenges.
