These are complicated times for container shipping operators. U.S. tariffs have rattled seaborne trade, weakened demand on transpacific routes, and introduced unwelcome uncertainty that is likely to persist through 2026. Yet there is evidence that strong demand beyond the U.S. is offsetting capacity pressures, and S&P Global Ratings considers that this is contributing to the resilience of container shipping companies’ credit quality.
What’s Happening
The imposition of tariffs led to see-sawing demand on seaborne trade routes between Asia and the U.S., as companies first rushed to beat the new charges then paused to assess their implications. Fears of a wider decline in maritime shipping (which accounts for over 90% of world trade) have eased as export-import flows, excluding the U.S., proved surprisingly resilient, leading to an about 4% increase in global container volumes over January-July 2025, according to market data and analytics provider Clarksons Research. We expect activity will slow in the second half of 2025, but that robust trading to-date should support overall growth in global container volumes this year, likely in the low single digits.
Why It Matters
After a strong 2024, container shipping is in a tougher spot due to the ongoing uncertainty around consumption and economic activity, weaker transpacific traffic, disruptions to established shipping networks, still unsettled U.S.-China tariff negotiations, and increased demurrage and storage charges caused by tariff-related delays at terminals. In the meantime, new ships continue to add to the global fleet, worsening persistent overcapacity.
Shipping outside of the transpacific is showing resilience and proving to be the global maritime trade’s savior. The resultant container volume growth in the rest of the world (beyond the U.S., which accounts for about 15% of global seaborne trade) has been fueled notably by robust Chinese consumer and industrial goods exports to some developing economies and by European imports. Trade between China and the Global South, for example, has boomed in recent years, with China exporting over $1.6 trillion to these developing regions in 2024–over 50% more than its exports to the U.S. and Western Europe combined. That offers container liners some scope to shuffle capacity away from U.S. routes and thus bolster utilization rates and cost efficiencies.
Container liners that we rate (A.P. Moller-Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and CMA CGM) are on track to meet our EBITDA forecasts for this year, backed by solid first-half results. All three liners maintain ample cash balances that underpin their solid capital structures. This is despite the trio undertaking sizeable capital expenditure for fleet renewal and their use of cash for acquisitions and shareholder returns at various times over 2022-2024. That spending was largely funded by unprecedented windfall profits from the pandemic-related super upcycle and has been offset by further strong profits in 2024.
What Comes Next
We expect low single-digit growth in global container volumes through 2026, in line with global GDP growth forecasts. That increase in demand will likely lag container shipping supply growth of 4%-5%, according to Clarksons Research, resulting in persistent overcapacity and thus pressure on freight rates. Meanwhile, we expect that the diversion of containerships from the Red Sea will continue to tie up capacity well into 2026.
While specific events could trigger temporary rate swings, for the liners we rate we apply a 10% decline in average freight rates in 2025, and a single-digit percentage drop in 2026, before rates stabilize at levels that will still more than cover ship running costs, which have increased significantly since 2019.
Given the persistent supply-side pressures and fragile demand, we expect that container liners will proactively manage excess supply in the upcoming months. That is not a given, but the industry has demonstrated it can positively and swiftly react to pressures–as it did in response to the outbreak of COVID-19 and following the U.S. Administration’s April announcement of unprecedented tariffs on China. Failure to deliver stringent capacity-containment measures that stop freight rates falling sustainably below our base-case could have implications for issuers’ credit worthiness.
Source: Platts
