Global transport fuel exports defined as gasoline, jet/kero and diesel fell by 1mbd y-o-y in March. This decline was driven primarily by lower liftings from the Middle East, where the ongoing conflict and reduced transits through the Straits of Hormuz curtailed flows. Liftings from Asia also fell y-o-y after several key suppliers-imposed export bans or curbs to retain barrels for domestic use. Russian liftings declined following drone strikes on oil infrastructure that disrupted production and exports. This article examines how reduced exports from East of Suez defined here as the Middle East and Asia are reshaping global transport fuel flows. Major Asian suppliers have cut transport fuel sales to international markets. China implemented an immediate ban on refined fuel exports effective 11 March, likely extending into April with exemptions to small volumes bound for countries in the region that have requested help (such as Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Myanmar). South Korea capped gasoline, diesel and kero (excluding jet fuel) exports at 100% of monthly 2025 levels from 13 March. India introduced export levies on middle distillates from 27 March: 21.5 rupees a litre (~$37/b) for diesel and 29.5 rupees a litre (~$50/b) for jet fuel exports (sources: Reuters, Argus). Motor fuel exports from the top‑6 Asian suppliers fell m-o-m in March and are forecasted to decline further in April as bans and curbs take full effect. Downside risks are amplified by expected falls in crude processing rates amid lower crude arrivals, which would further constrain transport fuel production and exports.
Lower liftings in the East of Suez has reduced availability of transport fuel barrels, particularly in Asia. This is evident from the swing in exports from India eastwards towards Wider Southeast Asia (primarily Southeast Asia and Oceania) in March. In addition, several importers of transport fuels in Asia have introduced measures to manage the tight situation. Australia reduced its gasoil minimum stockholding obligation from 2.7 billion litres (17.0mb) to 2.2 billion litres (13.8mb) and cut gasoline storage from 1.0 billion litres (6.3mb) to 0.7 billion litres (4.4mb) effective 13 March; higher sulphur limits for gasoline were temporarily permitted for 60 days to boost domestic supply. Vietnam announced flight cuts, and the Philippines implemented a 4‑day work week for government agencies to curb fuel and electricity use. Despite these measures, transport fuel import demand from Southeast Asia and Oceania remain higher y-o-y in March.
Asia will pull more transport fuel barrels as East of Suez exports fall and regional import demand persists. For gasoline, Asia will draw more barrels from the Red Sea and Atlantic Basin. As evidenced in the below graph, gasoline arrivals into Asia are expected to increase m-o-m in 1H April and exceed the long-term seasonal average. In addition, we will see reverse arbitrage flows of middle distillates towards Asia — historically a net exporter of jet/kero and diesel — with cargoes from the USGC and NWE already heading to Australia.
These shifts are expected to persist while the Middle East conflict continues, and sustained West‑to‑East flows will require a favourable arbitrage that overcomes steep backwardation and elevated freight costs.
Source: Vortexa
