Russia’s seaborne crude exports fell to a five-month low in July, according to cargo-tracking data.
The EU and the US started to target buyers in their latest bid to undermine Moscow’s war chest against Ukraine.
Russian-origin crude liftings from Russian ports reached 3.46 million b/d for the month, down slightly from 3.47 million b/d in June and the lowest level since March, as buyers in China cut back on purchases amid refinery maintenance, S&P Global Commodities at Sea(opens in a new tab) data showed.
The OPEC+ member exported 956,000 b/d in July to the second-biggest buyer, China, down 8% month over month and the lowest shipment to China since December 2022.
By contrast, July volumes to the largest buyer, India, rose 5% month over month to 1.72 million b/d.
Indian demand for Russian Urals crude could decline sharply following the EU’s ban on imports of products derived from Russian oil, potentially pressuring differentials for the medium-sour grade, market participants said.
The EU’s July 18 announcement prohibiting imports of Russian oil-derived refined products has cast uncertainty over India’s role as the top buyer of Russian Urals crude — a position it assumed after the Russia-Ukraine conflict began in February 2022 — while maintaining significant exports to Europe.
While Brussels’s ban will only come into force from next January, US President Donald Trump recently said Washington would “substantially” raise its tariff rate on Indian exports to the US in response to what Trump called India’s “massive” purchases of Russian crude.
Indian refiners are slowing down on Russian import deals while stepping up efforts to further diversify their crude import basket as they wait for clearer signals on secondary sanctions that Trump threatened.
Refining sources and analysts told Platts that, for now, Indian refiners would take their time purchasing Russian crude amid US threats, even as New Delhi has given them a free hand to plan crude imports keeping commercial viability in mind.
Russian ESPO Blend crude loadings from Kozmino port in July rose to 40 ships, up from 35 ships in June after maintenance reduced loadings of the grade that month, data from S&P Global Commodities at Sea(opens in a new tab) showed Aug. 1.
CAS data showed that, of the 40 ESPO shipments in July, each about 100,000 mt in size, 35 ships had discharged or were soon to discharge in China, while three others were bound for India and one for Singapore.
Demand for July-loading ESPO from Chinese refiners had been steady, with traded levels for the grade holding relatively firm. July-loading ESPO crude cargoes had mostly traded over late May to early June at premiums in the $2 to low $2s/b range to ICE September Brent crude futures, DES Shandong.
Buying activity has been slow to start, in part because of thin margins at independent refiners in China.
Product exports bow to sanctions pressure
Seaborne flows of Russian oil products in July slid 11% month over month to 2.10 million, the lowest since August 2024.
Shipments to Brazil led the decline in gasoil exports. “The potential secondary 100% tariffs threatened by Trump on countries purchasing Russian products, should a peace agreement with Ukraine not be reached within 50 days, could further disrupt Brazil’s gasoil sourcing, as finding alternative suppliers may become more challenging,” CAS analysts said.
Total Russian product exports to Brazil fell 29% year over year to 96,693 b/d, CAS data showed.
By contrast, total product exports to Turkey rose 4% month over month to 504,932 b/d.
Russian gasoline exports have been trending downward since the beginning of the year. This decline will be exacerbated by the July 28 export ban on gasoline that the Russian government imposed to conserve domestic supplies, which will run until Aug. 31.
Source: Platts
