As global tensions spike following U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, all eyes now turn to the Netherlands, where one of NATO’s most consequential summits since the Cold War is set to begin. U.S. President Donald Trump, freshly re-elected and controversial as ever, is expected to attend—though even that remains uncertain as the crisis in the Middle East deepens.
This will be Trump’s first NATO summit since returning to the White House, and European leaders are on edge. Many fear he could once again threaten to scale back U.S. support, pull troops from Europe, or lash out over burden-sharing—long-standing grievances he aired during his previous term.
“A few weeks ago, we weren’t even sure he’d show up,” a senior European diplomat told the BBC. “That alone would have been a disaster, with Russia and China watching for signs of Western disunity.”
Rutte’s Strategy at Risk
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has meticulously tailored the summit to appeal to Trump. European allies have pledged massive increases in defence spending, aiming to meet Trump’s long-standing demand for more equitable burden sharing. The centrepiece: a dramatic commitment to spend 5% of GDP on defence—a figure far above NATO’s traditional 2% benchmark.
But Trump’s sudden military escalation in the Middle East has thrown that strategy into disarray. Iran’s retaliatory strikes on U.S. bases in Iraq and Qatar could keep the President in Washington. Even if he attends, the volatile situation in Iran will be impossible to ignore, especially given European leaders’ previous calls for diplomacy, not airstrikes.
Risk of Rift with Europe
The Middle East conflict could quickly become a flashpoint during the summit. Trump, known for his sensitivity to criticism, may not take kindly to any European discomfort over his Iran policy. While he seeks a victory lap for extracting big spending promises, Spain’s reported opt-out from the 5% goal—later denied by Rutte—has already exposed cracks in the alliance’s unity.
“This summit is about credibility,” U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker said. But credibility may hinge on whether Trump sees the summit as a triumph or a threat to his narrative.
Deepening Uncertainty Over U.S. Commitment
Despite a recent U.S. decision to appoint Lt. Gen. Alexus Grynkewich as NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe—a traditionally American-held post—Europe remains deeply unsure of where Trump stands. His soft approach toward Moscow, and efforts to pressure Kyiv into ending the Ukraine war, have fueled concerns over the durability of America’s NATO commitments.
Even Trump’s own remarks have rattled allies. Asked if the U.S. would meet the 5% defence target, he responded:
“I don’t think we should—but they should. We’ve been carrying NATO long enough.”
That stance has left European leaders scrambling to prepare for a possible partial U.S. withdrawal, especially of the 20,000 extra American troops deployed in Eastern Europe during President Biden’s term.
Europe Steps Up—But With Limits
Some European countries, like Poland, are rising to the challenge. Warsaw is now spending 4.7% of GDP on defence—more than any other NATO nation, including the U.S.—and plans to build the continent’s most formidable land army.
Others, particularly Spain and Italy, are struggling. With tight budgets and fragile coalitions, leaders are wary of public backlash over higher military spending.
NATO is considering a compromise proposal: splitting the 5% target into 3.5% for core defence and 1.5% for related infrastructure, like cyber defence or logistics hubs. This framework would align Europe with U.S. military spending levels, currently at 3.4% of GDP.
But reaching these targets will require billions in new spending—likely through new taxes, more borrowing, or cuts to welfare programs. Few governments have fully prepared their citizens for the trade-offs, says Malcolm Chalmers of the Royal United Services Institute.
Structural Weaknesses Remain
Beyond budget numbers, the effectiveness of Europe’s defence remains in question. The continent’s military is plagued by fragmentation and redundancy—with 178 different weapons systems and 17 tank models across the EU alone. Pooling resources, standardizing platforms, and overcoming national pride remain politically sensitive topics unlikely to be resolved this week.
What Will the Summit Deliver?
While headlines may focus on whether Trump shows up or stays behind in the White House, the real stakes are longer-term:
- Will Europe finally take charge of its own defence?
- Can NATO unify around a credible plan in the face of Russian aggression and Middle East chaos?
- And will the U.S. remain committed—or quietly step back?
“This could be a watershed moment,” said one senior diplomat. “Possibly the most significant NATO summit since the Cold War. The moment Europe begins to match U.S. defence investment—and truly start preparing for its own security.”
