Madagascar has been thrust into political turmoil once again, with the Corps d’administration des personnels et des services administratifs et techniques (CAPSAT) emerging as the decisive force behind the dramatic protests that have shaken the capital, Antananarivo, since late September. As young demonstrators demand the resignation of President Andry Rajoelina, CAPSAT’s decision to back them has tipped the balance of power — and revived memories of the country’s 2009 political upheaval.
CAPSAT’s sudden intervention
On September 25, Gen Z-led protests erupted across the capital, calling for President Rajoelina’s immediate resignation. The movement gained unprecedented momentum when CAPSAT officers publicly declared their support. In a video statement released Saturday, the unit’s officers announced:
“From now on, all orders of the Malagasy army, whether land, air or military, will come from CAPSAT headquarters.”
They urged soldiers nationwide to refuse any “orders to shoot” at demonstrators, emphasizing that their priority was to protect citizens rather than suppress dissent.
Where is President Rajoelina?
Following CAPSAT’s defection, Rajoelina reportedly fled the country. Opposition leader Siteny Randrianasoloniaiko told Reuters that the president left Madagascar on Sunday aboard a French military aircraft, though Paris has not confirmed this. His office, however, denounced CAPSAT’s move as “an attempt to seize power illegally and by force.” Opposition lawmakers have since initiated impeachment proceedings against him.
Crowds in Antananarivo celebrated the news, waving flags and singing the national anthem — a scene eerily reminiscent of Rajoelina’s own rise to power in 2009, when CAPSAT backed his revolt against then-President Marc Ravalomanana.
Why CAPSAT matters so much
While not a front-line combat force, CAPSAT wields immense structural power within Madagascar’s military. The unit controls administration, personnel management, logistics, and technical services — the backbone of the armed forces’ daily functioning. This means that even combat units rely on CAPSAT for supplies, maintenance, and troop coordination.
According to political risk analyst Rose Mumanya, “Because of its influence, history, and legitimacy, CAPSAT holds enormous leverage. Even if Rajoelina retains loyalty from other units, the balance of power isn’t in his favor.”
Mumanya added that CAPSAT’s leadership is composed largely of elite officers linked to the gendarmerie and key business figures, many of whom have grown disillusioned with Rajoelina’s rule in recent years. Their ties to powerful civilian networks make CAPSAT both a military and political actor, able to sway the country’s direction during crises.
Echoes of history
Madagascar’s current turmoil mirrors the events of 2009, when Rajoelina — then mayor of Antananarivo — led protests that toppled Ravalomanana, aided by CAPSAT’s support. The Small Arms Survey later noted that Ravalomanana was not ousted through a traditional coup, but rather lost control of the security apparatus, a scenario now potentially repeating itself.
Despite efforts to prevent history from repeating, Rajoelina struggled to secure CAPSAT’s loyalty. He had replaced several top officers and placed loyalists in other army divisions, but CAPSAT remained largely autonomous and resistant to direct political control.
A shifting power structure
The installation of General Demosthene Pikulas as the new Chief of Army Staff, reportedly chosen by CAPSAT, further solidified its dominance. His appointment came shortly after Rajoelina dissolved his government, leaving key defense positions vacant. At the swearing-in ceremony, Armed Forces Minister Manantsoa Deramasinjaka Rakotoarivelo publicly endorsed the appointment, saying, “I give him my blessing.”
Analysts warn that if Rajoelina is indeed ousted, the consequences could be severe. “It would continue the cycle of weak institutions and a strong military intervening for the benefit of elites, not citizens,” Mumanya said.
What lies ahead
The crisis underscores Madagascar’s long-standing struggle with civil-military balance and institutional fragility. As protesters remain defiant and CAPSAT consolidates its position, analysts suggest that a national dialogue involving all political and civil stakeholders could be crucial to breaking the cycle of military-dominated transitions.
For now, CAPSAT’s influence appears unchallenged — reaffirming its role as the kingmaker of Malagasy politics, capable of determining who rules the island nation.
