NEW DELHI: Following the recommencement of direct flights between India and China, both nations are eager to reinstate the high-level framework for cultural and interpersonal exchanges at the beginning of next year.
The framework, which is overseen by the foreign ministers, has convened twice to date – in 2018 and 2019 – and its revival is crucial for enhancing collaboration across various sectors such as tourism, culture, media, and academic exchanges.
Following the resolution of the military standoff in eastern Ladakh, India and China have undertaken various measures to restore their relationship.
In Hindu mythology, mortals engaged in prayers and performed intricate rituals to appease Indra, the deity of rain. According to legend, the musician Tansen possessed a melodious voice capable of invoking rain from clear skies. However, ordinary individuals lack both the Ashvamedha yagna and Tansen’s vocal prowess. In contemporary India, a new breed of rainmaker depends on scientific methods rather than melodies to extract moisture from the atmosphere. Although the hopes of Dilliwalas for rainfall may have diminished following this week’s unsuccessful attempt, these few rainmakers remain steadfast in their belief that cloud seeding can be effective when applied correctly.
The upcoming, or third, meeting is anticipated to occur in Delhi. The decision to renew direct air services led to China Eastern initiating its inaugural Shanghai-Delhi flight, which achieved a 95% occupancy rate.
Cloud seeding is a weather modification technique that has been in use for 80 years, involving the dispersion of particles such as silver iodide or calcium chloride into moisture-laden clouds to encourage rainfall.
Research indicates that this method can increase rainfall by 18-46% and assist in mitigating drought, water shortages, and associated issues.
It has been implemented with varying levels of success globally, especially in China and the United States.
In India, the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) in Pune has been conducting cloud seeding experiments and research since the 1970s; however, it was not until 2003 that states initiated practical experiments in Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu aimed at enhancing rainfall.
This marks the first instance of cloud seeding being employed to address pollution.
The Agni Aero Sports Adventure Academy, based in Bengaluru, has collaborated with Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Rajasthan for rain enhancement since 2003. Its founder, Arvind Sharma, a trained microlight aviator, expresses concerns that the Delhi experiment may have caused more harm than benefit. “Cloud seeding cannot generate rain. It can only enhance rainfall under certain weather conditions, including cloud formation and moisture availability. It is not surprising that the project has not succeeded,” he states. Under Sharma’s leadership, the company has undertaken projects in the rain-shadow regions of Andhra and Maharashtra, which present their own unique challenges. “Pilots are trained to avoid turbulence to ensure the safety of passengers and the aircraft. In cloud seeding, we actively seek out turbulence and enter the clouds,” Sharma explains, detailing the necessity for the aircraft to be in close proximity to inject the clouds with the chemical. Prakash Koliwad, founder of Kyathi Climate, which has partnered with IITM Pune and conducted various missions in Maharashtra and Karnataka from 2015 to 2019, asserts that there has been three decades of research in this area, validating it as a credible science. He contends that if utilized effectively, it is not as prohibitively expensive as it is often portrayed. The government of Maharashtra allocates between Rs 4,000 and 5,000 crore annually for drought relief and must address issues such as farmer distress and suicides. According to him, if they were to invest 0.1 to 0.2% of that budget at the onset of the monsoon season to improve rainfall, they would no longer encounter agitated farmers or distress.
So, what is the reason this technique has not gained more popularity? Suman Akkaraju, the CEO of Siri Aviations, attributes this to a lack of awareness. “Cloud seeding is still perceived as an experimental method by many. Raising awareness, obtaining regulatory approvals, and fostering public understanding require time. However, with an increase in proven results and improved data, the adoption rate is gradually rising.”
Reports indicate that the Delhi government has been spending Rs 65 lakh daily, while projects that extend over several months can incur costs ranging from Rs 30 to 40 crore. Recently, Rajasthan implemented a more cost-effective approach, which is touted as India’s first drone-based cloud seeding initiative. Nevertheless, this method also has an inconsistent track record. In August and September of this year, the government employed drones to generate artificial rain in an attempt to rejuvenate Ramgarh lake, but this effort was unsuccessful.
Although somewhat ineffective in India, this technology has gained popularity internationally. The initial groundbreaking effort was recorded by Vincent Schaefer in 1946, who employed dry ice to enhance snowfall. Since the 1950s, the United States has implemented cloud seeding in mountainous regions to boost snowfall and even utilized it in Operation Popeye, a covert five-year military initiative during the Vietnam War aimed at extending the monsoon season and hindering enemy movements. Additionally, cloud seeding was employed during the 1980 Moscow and 2008 Beijing Olympics, not to induce rain but rather to avert it. It was also reportedly utilized at the 2012 wedding of the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge. Both China and the UAE have made significant investments to address drought issues.
Upon returning home, environmental specialists have characterized the cloud seeding initiative as mere “theatrics” that do not tackle the fundamental issues of air pollution. Gufran Beig, affiliated with the National Institute of Advanced Studies and the founder-director of SAFAR, asserts that cloud seeding is a highly specialized scientific endeavor that requires meticulous execution. “Even under the most optimal conditions, the likelihood of success ranges from 50-60%, applicable to both pre and post-monsoon periods. However, during this time of year, that probability diminishes to 10%,” he states.
