NEW DELHI: It is anticipated that global carbon emissions from fossil fuels will increase by 1.1% in 2025, reaching a record high of 38.1 billion tonnes compared to 2024, with the United States expected to experience the highest percentage rise of 1.9%, followed by India at 1.4%, and both China and the EU at 0.4% each among the four major emitting nations, according to the Global Carbon Budget – an annual, peer-reviewed report published. The report indicates that emissions in India and China are, however, growing at a slower pace from 2024 to 2025 than in previous years, attributed to significant growth in renewable energy in both countries. The growth rates from 2023 to 2024 were the highest at 4% for India and 0.7% for China, while the EU and the US experienced declines of 2.6% and 0.6%, respectively, during a period when overall global emissions rose by 0.8%. In 2024, the largest absolute contributions to global fossil CO2 emissions were attributed to China (32%), the US (13%), India (8%), and the EU (6%). On a positive note, total CO2 emissions – which encompass both fossil and land-use change emissions – have increased at a slower rate over the past decade (0.3% per year) compared to the previous decade (1.9% per year). The 20th edition of this annual report, compiled by an international team of over 130 scientists under the Global Carbon Project, emphasizes that while the decarbonization of energy systems is advancing in numerous countries, it remains insufficient to counterbalance the growth in global energy demand.
Consequently, the remaining carbon budget necessary to maintain global warming within 1.5 degrees Celsius (approximately 170 billion tonnes of CO2) will be depleted in roughly four years if emissions persist at their current levels. The remaining carbon budget refers to the quantity of carbon dioxide that can still be emitted while ensuring that global warming does not exceed a specific temperature threshold, such as 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. This budget is swiftly diminishing as emissions from fossil fuels and land-use changes significantly outstrip the rate at which carbon is extracted from the atmosphere. “The remaining carbon budget for 1.5 degrees Celsius, which stands at 170 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide, will be exhausted before 2030 if the current emission rate continues. We estimate that climate change is now diminishing the combined land and ocean sinks – a clear indication from Planet Earth that we must drastically reduce emissions,” stated Pierre Friedlingstein from Exeter’s Global Systems Institute, who spearheaded the study. The report indicates that the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is projected to reach 425.7 ppm by 2025, which is 52% higher than pre-industrial (1850-1900) levels. The report asserts, “With no indication of the urgently required reduction in global emissions, the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere – along with the perilous effects of global warming – continues to rise.” “It has been 10 years since the Paris Agreement was established, and despite advancements in various areas, fossil CO2 emissions persist in their unyielding increase. Climate change and variability are also noticeably impacting our natural climate sinks. It is evident that countries must enhance their efforts. We now possess robust evidence that clean technologies can effectively reduce emissions while being cost-efficient compared to fossil fuel alternatives,” remarked Glen Peters, a senior researcher at the CICERO Center for International Climate Research.
