Adaptation finance, which refers to the funds required to assist developing nations in addressing the effects of the climate crisis, is projected to exceed $310 billion annually by 2035. This amount is 12 times greater than the current international public adaptation finance flows, as highlighted in the Adaptation Gap Report 2025: ‘Running on Empty’.
In 2023, international public adaptation finance flows to developing countries amounted to $26 billion, a decrease from $28 billion in the previous year. Consequently, this results in an adaptation finance gap ranging from $284 to $339 billion per year, which is 12 to 14 times higher than the existing flows, according to the report published by the United Nations Environment Programme.
Furthermore, based on the extrapolated requirements outlined in Nationally Determined Contributions (which are targets for emission reductions) and National Adaptation Plans, the necessary adaptation finance escalates to $365 billion annually.
If the current trends in financing do not reverse swiftly, the objective of the Glasgow Climate Pact, established during the COP26 climate conference, to double international public adaptation finance from 2019 levels to around $40 billion by 2025 will remain unattainable.
At COP29 in Baku, the New Collective Quantified Goal determined that developed nations would allocate a minimum of $300 billion annually by 2035 for climate action in developing countries. However, this financial target encompasses both mitigation and adaptation efforts and is evidently inadequate to bridge the financing gap.
The report indicates, “Meanwhile, if the estimated adaptation finance requirements of $310-365 billion in 2035 were adjusted for inflation at an annual rate of 3% (a figure consistent with near-term projections), they would rise to $440-520 billion.”
UN Secretary-General António Guterres remarked in his message accompanying the report, “Climate impacts are accelerating. Yet adaptation finance is not keeping pace, leaving the world’s most vulnerable exposed to rising seas, deadly storms, and searing heat. This is not merely a funding gap; it represents a failure of global solidarity. It is reflected in flooded homes, failed harvests, disrupted development – and lost lives. As the climate crisis intensifies and costs escalate, the world must act much more swiftly to meet the increasing demands.”
The emphasis is now shifting towards how COP30 in Belem can tackle the significant gap in adaptation finance.
“COP 30 in Brazil is required to produce a global action plan that guarantees developing nations possess the necessary resources and capabilities to safeguard their populations, enhance food and water security, and foster resilience across all areas of development. This entails that developed nations fulfill their long-overdue commitment to double adaptation finance, and that all financial stakeholders advance on the Baku-to-Belém Roadmap – mobilizing $1.3 trillion annually by 2035, with a fair and predictable allocation for adaptation, while ensuring that new financing does not exacerbate debt burdens,” Guterres stated.
“The private sector must increase its efforts – investing significantly more in resilience and adaptation. Profits from fossil fuels should contribute to the recovery from the harm they have inflicted. Multilateral development banks need to mobilize a greater amount of affordable private finance and allocate half of their climate funding to adaptation. Additionally, public finance must be expedited and simplified to access, reaching the communities on the frontlines when and where it is most urgently required,” he further remarked.
The insufficiency of resources, action, and global focus will lead to elevated long-term global temperatures along with related climate impacts and risks. “Nevertheless, the investments made in climate action significantly surpass the costs associated with inaction. For example, every dollar allocated to coastal protection prevents fourteen dollars in damages; urban nature-based solutions can lower ambient temperatures by more than 1°C on average, which represents a considerable enhancement during the summer heat; and initiatives aimed at building health-related capacities can further alleviate symptoms of heat stress,” the report indicated.
Approximately 172 nations have established at least one national adaptation policy, strategy, or plan; only four nations have yet to initiate the development of a plan, as stated in the report.
However, 36 out of the 172 nations have tools that are either outdated or have not been revised in over a decade. This issue must be addressed to reduce the risk of maladaptation. In the Biennial Transparency Reports – submitted under the Paris Agreement to detail progress in fulfilling climate commitments – nations reported over 1,600 adaptation actions that have been implemented, primarily concerning biodiversity, agriculture, water, and infrastructure. Nonetheless, only a few nations are providing reports on actual outcomes and impacts, which are essential for evaluating their effectiveness and sufficiency. In the meantime, support for new initiatives under the Adaptation Fund, the Global Environment Facility, and the Green Climate Fund has risen to nearly $920 million in 2024. This marks an increase of 86% compared to the five-year moving average of $494 million from 2019 to 2023.
HT has announced that India has completed its inaugural national adaptation plan, which is anticipated to be revealed prior to or during the UN Climate Meeting (COP30) in Belem, Brazil. The national adaptation plan, along with an update to India’s nationally determined contribution (NDC) for the 2035 timeframe, is presently under review and is expected to be submitted for Cabinet approval shortly, according to sources familiar with the situation.
Adaptation will be a pivotal topic at COP30 in Belem, Brazil, with parties anticipated to reach an agreement on adaptation indicators and to address the adaptation finance gap, stated UN Climate Chief Simon Stiell on October 20.
“The strategy to mobilize $1.3 trillion in climate finance will undoubtedly be crucial at COP30. Let us be unequivocal: climate finance is not a form of charity. It is essential for safeguarding every population and economy, as well as the global supply chains that all nations rely on for sustainable growth, food security, and energy security,” Stiell remarked while presenting a progress report on the national adaptation plan (NAP).
This report highlights an astonishing act of betrayal. The gap in adaptation finance poses a grave threat to communities on the frontlines. For many years, the developing world has been urged to brace for a crisis they did not instigate. They have diligently prepared—172 countries currently possess adaptation plans—but affluent nations have provided nothing more than empty promises, with financial support declining in the previous year.
This significant gap—now at least 12 times greater than the funds available—is directly responsible for lost lives, devastated homes, and disrupted livelihoods. This represents a conscious political decision by wealthy countries to forsake the developing world in the face of climate impacts for which they bear no responsibility. It epitomizes climate injustice,” stated Harjeet Singh, Climate Activist and Founding Director of the Satat Sampada Climate Foundation.
A recent analysis by Oil Change International, titled “Planet Wreckers: Global North Countries Fueling the Fire Since the Paris Agreement,” reveals that just four countries from the Global North—namely the United States, Canada, Australia, and Norway—are primarily responsible for hindering global efforts to phase out oil and gas production.
Between 2015 and 2024, the expansion of oil and gas by these nations has led to an increase in total global output since the Paris Agreement was established. Overall, Global North countries have not fulfilled their obligations regarding climate finance, which has impeded climate action in other parts of the world while simultaneously safeguarding the profits of major contributors to the climate crisis: polluters and the wealthy elite, according to the analysis.
Between 2015 and 2024, the United States, Canada, Australia, and Norway collectively boosted their oil and gas production by nearly 40%, contributing over 14 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. During the same timeframe, extraction in the rest of the world experienced a cumulative decline of 2%. This disparity is both striking and critically significant as nations prepare to gather at COP30 to negotiate the subsequent phase of the global climate agenda.
“A decade ago in Paris, nations committed to limiting warming to 1.5°C, a goal that cannot be achieved without halting the expansion and production of fossil fuels. The affluent countries that bear the greatest responsibility for the climate crisis have failed to uphold that commitment. Instead, they have exacerbated the situation and withheld the necessary funding to address it. The reality that a small number of wealthy Global North nations, spearheaded by the United States, have significantly increased their oil and gas output while people globally endure the repercussions is a blatant affront to justice and equity. These nations have both a moral and legal duty to take the lead in phasing out fossil fuels and to provide the trillions required for climate finance on equitable terms to the Global South. Anything less constitutes a betrayal of scientific principles and a dereliction of responsibility,” stated Romain Ioualalen, Global Policy lead at Oil Change International.
