A 2024 lecture by Chinese historian and education reformer Jiang Xueqin is gaining widespread attention online for its bold predictions—namely, the return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency and the outbreak of a U.S.-Iran war. At the time of the lecture, Joe Biden was still president, and the talk received little public notice. But with Trump now back in office and tensions with Iran escalating, clips from the lecture have resurfaced and gone viral.
The lecture, part of Jiang’s “Predictive History” series, explored geopolitical trends through a game-theory lens. Jiang argued that a second Trump administration would face intense pressure—particularly from pro-Israel lobbies, Saudi Arabian interests, and America’s deep-seated need to maintain global hegemony for economic dominance—to confront Iran militarily.
He outlined a dramatic hypothetical scenario he called “Operation Iranian Freedom”, in which the U.S., Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UK, UAE, and other allies would coordinate a military campaign against Iran. According to Jiang, Trump would justify such action using familiar rhetoric: Iran’s nuclear ambitions, regional proxy warfare, threats to U.S. allies, and the promotion of democracy.
But Jiang’s forecast went further: he controversially predicted that U.S. ground troops would be deployed into Iran and eventually taken hostage, warning that subduing Iran would require 3 to 4 million soldiers—far beyond current U.S. military capacity. He portrayed the situation as a strategic quagmire, a costly and dangerous overreach.
Following Trump’s Operation Midnight Hammer—which involved targeted strikes on Iranian nuclear sites—Jiang continued his analysis, framing the developments within his game theory model. However, with Trump now brokering a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, many on social media are questioning the accuracy of Jiang’s predictions.
“Jiang predicted war; we got a ceasefire,” noted one user. Others suggest his scenario was never meant to be a literal forecast, but a provocative thought experiment illustrating the structural forces driving U.S. foreign policy.
Who Is Jiang Xueqin?
Jiang Xueqin is a Beijing-based writer, historian, and educator, widely known for his advocacy of education reform in China. A Canadian citizen of Chinese descent, he graduated from Yale College in 1999 with a degree in English literature. Jiang has written extensively on global education and Chinese society, with contributions to The New York Times (Chinese edition), China Youth Daily, The Wall Street Journal, and The Chronicle of Higher Education.
He is also the author of Creative China (2014), which chronicles his efforts to bring creativity, critical thinking, and global citizenship into the Chinese education system.
As the viral interest in his 2024 lecture shows, Jiang’s unique blend of historical insight, global analysis, and speculative forecasting continues to stir debate—even if some of his predictions fall short of reality.
