A doubling of cargo capacity in the past nine years has been achieved by the China-owned fleet of merchant ships – bulk carriers, tankers, container ships, gas carriers and other ship types. Newbuildings on order now comprise almost a fifth of the fleet, a doubling in a few years, implying further robust expansion. What is driving this upwards trend?
Among ship owning countries China’s fleet is the largest, based on one tonnage measurement, and has been growing at well over twice the rate of the world fleet as a whole in the past decade.
Expanding capacity enables rising shares of seaborne imports to and exports from China to be carried in nationally-owned vessels.
The directly or indirectly expressed government policy aim of reducing dependence on foreign shipowners and strengthening the security of the country’s international trade movements is being fulfilled. Increased participation of China-owned ships in open market ‘cross-trades’, where China is neither importer nor exporter, is also assisted by the enlarging fleet.
Vigorous growth trend
China-owned merchant ships now comprise approaching one-fifth of the world fleet, based on gross tonnes as a common measurement for all vessel types, compared with around one- twentieth in the early 2000s. All the main categories have seen rapid growth over the first quarter of this century, including in recent years.
During the past decade capacity in the China-owned fleet more than doubled. The total increased from 131.3 million gross tonnes at end-2014 to 292.6m gt at end-2024, according to data compiled by Clarksons Research. This 123 percent overall increase resulted from an average 8.4 percent annual growth rate. Bulk carriers remain by far the largest component, currently contributing just over half the entire merchant ship fleet.
Fleet growth reflects changes in, and the relationship among four main elements determining inflows and outflows. Annual growth in capacity results from volumes of newbuilding deliveries and secondhand vessel purchases, both adding capacity, while second-hand sales and scrapping (recycling) reduce capacity.
Year-to-year variations in the China-owned merchant ship fleet’s increases have occurred. But over the past ten years or more, greater stability of growth rates has evolved. In this period, growth in eight of the years from 2013 to 2024 was between 5.0 and 7.8 percent, accompanied by three years (2017, 2021 and 2024) at between 8.4 and 10.0 percent, and one exceptionally rapid growth year (2018) at 13.7 percent. Annual growth averaged 8.4 percent in the decade ending 2024, more than twice the world fleet’s average 3.6 percent annual expansion.
Within the 161m gt aggregate fleet enlargement over the past ten years already highlighted (from 131.3m gt at end-2014, to 292.6m gt at end-2024), the main ship type categories contributed widely differing proportions of the overall growth. Almost half was contributed by bulk carriers, including ore carriers (47 percent of the total increase). About one quarter was container ships (24 percent), followed by tankers (16 percent) and other vessel types (12 percent).
Another revealing comparison is average growth rates in the main vessel type groups over the past five years, 2020 to 2024. This comparison is characterized by similarities rather than differences. Individual year’s growth varied, both within each type group, and across groups in individual years. However, ship type averages in the five years period as a whole were fairly uniform. Bulk carriers grew by an average 7.9 percent, tankers by 6.7 percent, container ships by 6.7 percent and other types by 8.2 percent.
Fleet growth in 2024-2025
During 2024 bulk carrier fleet expansion accelerated to 9 percent from the previous year’s relatively slow growth. By contrast, container ship fleet expansion decelerated sharply, almost halving, although it was still relatively rapid at over 9 percent. In the tanker and other ship type fleet categories, growth regained stronger momentum.
Contrasting changes were also seen during 2024 in the contributions of newbuilding deliveries, scrapping and secondhand purchases and sales. Merchant ship newbuilding deliveries were down by about a tenth from the previous year. But ship purchases from foreign shipowners on the secondhand market rose strongly by almost two-thirds, to provide the largest volume of additional tonnage for the China-owned fleet. The partly offsetting secondhand sales (well under half of the purchases) were somewhat lower that recorded in the previous year. Meanwhile scrapping (recycling) of old or obsolete tonnage remained very low at under 1m gt, representing less than half of one percent of start-of-year fleet capacity, within a depressed range seen in recent years.
These variations in influences during recent years illustrate how the impact of newbuilding ship capacity entering the China-owned fleet is often modified by several other changes. Last year, despite reduced albeit extensive newbuilding deliveries, much higher secondhand ship purchases were combined with lower secondhand sales, while scrapping remained minimal, resulting in an acceleration in fleet expansion.
Provisional calculations, which may be revised, suggest that the China-owned merchant ship fleet has continued growing in the first three quarters of 2025. During this period around 5 percent growth is estimated, which could imply growth in the full year similar to the average rate of over 7 percent seen in the past three years.
The future trend: how will it unfold?
Assessments of the future evolution of the China-owned merchant ship fleet, especially over the longer-term, involve a large conjectural element, based on assumptions which may or may not prove accurate. Several influences are difficult to evaluate. Estimates of secondhand ship purchases and sales are mostly speculative guesses about unknown strategy and intentions that may change. One potentially more reliable expectation is that it seems realistic to expect greatly increased scrapping after the unusually low volumes seen in recent years.
An influence that can be assessed more rigorously, albeit still with uncertain aspects, is the likely inflow of newbuilding deliveries into the fleet over the next few years. Information about orders placed by shipowners, and shipbuilding yard orderbook data, is available. These details are a partial yet substantial indication of prospects for the future fleet.
The delivery schedule for newbuilding vessels – based on confirmed orders placed at shipbuilding yards – provides a guide to fleet capacity additions, although it is not always a completely reliable indicator of future volumes or timing of introduction into the operating fleet. This schedule is often a useful approximation, however. A newbuilding’s delivery timing sometimes changes, due to construction delays or postponement. Cancellations, or orders changed to another ship type, typically are fairly minor features.
Newbuilding for owners in China
Within the past few years a strong trend in newbuilding orders placed by shipowners based in China has unfolded. This trend boosted the orderbook, as deliveries of ships previously contracted were outpaced by the incoming volume of new orders. After declining for several years up to end-2019 when it totalled 18.8m gt (equivalent to 9 percent of the existing China-owned
merchant ship fleet), the orderbook has risen rapidly. By end-2024 it reached 48.8m gt (17 percent of the fleet), according to Clarksons Research data.
A further upsurge to 59.2m gt (19 percent of the existing China-owned fleet capacity) was reached at end-September 2025, based on tentative calculations. Within this total, 4.9m gt was scheduled for delivery during the fourth quarter of 2025. In 2026 a total of 16.7m gt was scheduled for delivery, a volume that may be modified by additional information. For the years from 2027 onwards the total is calculated at 37.5m gt.
To what extent is the orders schedule recorded as at end-September 2025 a reliable indication of actual deliveries in 2026 and later? It may be assumed that the schedule shows a substantially complete calculation of the 2026 deliveries total, although some orders may not yet have been Recorded. Also, a typical pattern is that a proportion of the current year’s remaining scheduled completions may be delayed until early in the following year, with the same feature applicable twelve months later.
Additional newbuilding orders for 2026 delivery may be placed by owners based in China, but this volume probably will be limited by the already large schedule at many yards and tight shipyard capacity available after recent ordering. Typically at the beginning of any relatively short period such as the twelve to eighteen months immediately ahead, there is limited potential for additional orders for delivery within that period to be accepted by shipbuilding yards. This reflects (a) the duration of construction work, especially for more complex ship types such as gas carriers and container ships, as well as (b) availability of shipyard berths (slots) for early completions due to existing orders being built.
Among the categories of ships in which newbuilding orders have been placed recently, several features are prominent. In the period of just over a year since mid-2024 the orderbook for China- owned new buildings rose by 63 percent, boosted by especially notable advances in the tanker, bulk carrier and container ship segments. During this relatively short period of heavy ordering, the tanker newbuilding orderbook for these owners almost tripled to reach 9.4m gt. The container ship orderbook increased by 91 percent to 15.0m gt, the bulk carrier orderbook rose by 72 percent to 19.9m gt, and the gas carrier orderbook rose by 40 percent to 10.7m gt. By contrast the orderbook for all other ship types together diminished by 28 percent to 4.3m gt.
China-owned fleet’s employment
Clear signs of the China-owned merchant ship fleet’s close links with market segments, cargo types and trade routes are evident. The vast scale of crude oil, gas and dry bulk imports into China has stimulated expansion of the country’s tanker, gas carrier and bulk carrier fleets. Exports and imports of manufactured and semi-finished goods have provided an incentive for the growth of China’s container ship fleet.
On a smaller, specialized scale but prominent recently has been deliveries of large car carriers to owners in China and orders for additional deliveries in the period ahead. These new buildings reflect rising car production supported by competitiveness in export markets, linked to advances in electric vehicle technology. Much of the additional output of Chinese car manufacturers is focused on opportunities to supply export markets around the world, for which extra specialized vehicle carriers are required to carry the envisaged growth in trade volumes.
Many new ships joining the China-owned fleet seem likely to be wholly or mostly employed in trades where China is at one end of the route or routes involved, as importer or exporter. Often only partial information is available about commitments, contracts and intentions. However, information about ships’ geographical employment patterns and actual movements confirms how and where specific ship types and sizes are employed.
The perceived aim of the Chinese government to attain greater influence and control over sea transport of cargoes in the country’s import and export trades is an enduring theme. This aim is occasionally revealed more clearly in official or semi-official declarations, such as those emerging in recent years suggesting that a specific proportion of crude oil imports should be carried by
China-owned tonnage. But more often similar objectives can be inferred from the actual enlargement of the fleet and newbuilding orders placed. According to such interpretations it seems fairly obvious that a higher market share of import or export transportation is being sought.
An aspect that is likely to have an impact on how the fleet evolves is envisaged future changes in trade volumes and patterns. For import trades especially, after China’s commodity imports saw a strong upwards trend over an extended period of years, there are now arguably signs of growth slowing or ceasing in some parts.
Iron ore imports, by far the largest single commodity component of China’s seaborne trade, seem unlikely to continue growing. Several analysts suggest that annual volumes, now at 1.2 billion tonnes, appear to have reached a plateau and may decline. A large proportion (274 million tonnes, over a fifth of the total, in 2024) was imported from Brazil, a long-haul route where China- owned giant size 400,000 tonnes deadweight valemax ore carriers and guaibamax 325,000 dwt ore carriers are widely employed. China-owned ships could still achieve a higher market share in several commodity trades though, even if volume growth loses momentum. One Chinese owner ordered huge additional capacity, 10 guaibamax newbuildings, a few months ago.
Numerous China-owned ships will continue to be mostly employed in the massive China coastal trades that are not open to employment of foreign-flag tonnage. How the trend of China-owned ships’ involvement in the international cross-trades, where China is not a destination or origin, will evolve during future years is difficult to assess.
Fleet employment and future requirements for capacity depend partly on how Chinese leasing companies’ activities progress. These leasing companies, several of which are active on a large scale, provide finance for foreign ship operating clients in numerous countries while retaining vessel ownership through the lease agreements and therefore are the official owners of such tonnage. Their services reflect demand for, and the supply of finance in the international shipping market, competing with other financial houses. In recent years foreign ship operators have reacted to favourable finance terms offered by Chinese lessors.
Fleet expectations overview
Commercial influences wholly or mainly determine how the merchant ship fleet owned by national companies in many countries evolves. Government influence is normally much less important than market forces. China differs because the government tends to have a more influential impact on the wider strategic vision for, and guidance of, private-sector company activities as well as on those within the public sector. Numerous companies evidently have a large degree of commercial independence, however.
Ideas about the China-owned merchant ship fleet’s future trend are based upon a few solid signs, coupled with broad assumptions and speculation. Continued expansion seems a plausible expectation. Official and unofficial narrative about intentions to reduce dependence on foreign owned ships, emerging over a number of past years, has also reinforced this view.
As outlined in this article, changes in the China-owned fleet’s capacity depend on the scale of variations in several elements. Augmenting newbuilding deliveries, in 2025 and further ahead the fleet will reflect secondhand ship purchases, and the offsetting impact of secondhand sales and recycling sales. Estimates of these components are almost entirely guesses, because many unpredictable and changing influences affect decisions by owners about whether and how to acquire or dispose of tonnage.
Despite these conundrums, the extensive orderbook for China-owned newbuilding vessels, almost a fifth of the country’s existing capacity, points to further substantial fleet enlargement over the years ahead. China’s greater proportionate share of world seaborne trade (especially as an importer, with 25 percent of the world imports total), than of the global merchant ship fleet implies an incentive to expand nationally-owned cargo-carrying capacity. This feature may be perceived as potentially supporting fleet growth.
These perceptions suggest that it is plausible to conclude that expansion of the China-owned fleet at a robust pace is foreseeable over the next several years at least. But as emphasized, the evidence base is quite thin in parts, and expectations tend to be affected by recent trends and observed characteristics. One possible outcome, albeit debatable, is that future merchant ship fleet expansion proves somewhat slower than the average rate seen in the past decade.
Source: Bulk Shipping Analysis
