Despite being among Asia’s largest powers and most interconnected economies, China and Japan continue to struggle with a relationship marked by rivalry, historical wounds and strategic mistrust. Every few years, a flare-up reveals just how fragile their ties remain. The latest tensions follow the same pattern, underscoring how quickly diplomatic disagreements can spill into public opinion, financial markets and regional stability.
At the heart of the strain lie deeper anxieties: shifting military balances, unresolved memories of war, and the highly sensitive question of Taiwan. These pressures simmer beneath the surface, resurfacing whenever political rhetoric sharpens or security concerns heighten. Each episode highlights how precarious coexistence can be between Asia’s two major powers — and how much is at stake when they clash.
What’s happening now?
Tensions spiked after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi hinted that Japan might intervene militarily if China attempted to forcibly annex Taiwan. Beijing reacted sharply, summoning Japan’s ambassador and demanding a retraction. A senior Chinese diplomat also posted — and later deleted — a threatening comment directed at Takaichi. Tokyo responded by summoning China’s ambassador in protest.
JNU international relations professor Rajan Kumar told TOI that Japan increasingly views Taiwan’s security as tied to its own:
“Japan’s Senkaku Islands, under its control since 1895, are claimed by China as part of Taiwan. Since China claims Taiwan as its territory, Japan sees Taiwan’s security as linked to its own,” he said.
The diplomatic row is already affecting ordinary citizens and businesses. China has advised its nationals to avoid Japan, prompting a sharp drop in tourism, retail stocks, and the cancellation of nearly 500,000 flight tickets. Japan has issued its own advisory, urging citizens in China to avoid crowded areas. Cultural ties have also taken a hit, with two Japanese film releases postponed in China amid state-media criticism.
Tokyo has dispatched a senior foreign ministry official to Beijing to ease tensions — with limited success so far.
A rivalry rooted in history
Centuries of cultural exchange once connected the two nations, with Japan drawing heavily from Chinese philosophy, characters and traditions. But by the late 19th century, power shifted. Japan’s rise and its bloody wartime occupation of Chinese territory left deep scars, especially memories of atrocities like Nanjing — wounds that Beijing frequently invokes in domestic politics.
These unresolved historical traumas continue to color every diplomatic exchange.
The islands that keep the conflict alive
At the center of modern tensions is a cluster of tiny, uninhabited islands in the East China Sea — Senkaku (Japan) or Diaoyu (China). Though small, they have become powerful symbols of sovereignty and national pride.
Since 2012, China has dispatched coast guard and government vessels to the area almost daily — a move Japan sees as a calculated attempt to alter the status quo. Adding to the tension is a disputed nearby gas field.
“Japan has a security agreement with the US covering the Senkaku Islands. The Japanese PM’s recent statement on supporting Taiwan has alarmed Beijing, as reunification is central to China’s foreign policy,” Rajan Kumar noted.
Both nations are also undergoing major military shifts. China’s defence budget has doubled under Xi Jinping, while Japan is abandoning decades of strict pacifism, aiming to raise defence spending to 2% of GDP. Beijing accuses Tokyo of drifting toward militarism; Tokyo insists it is adapting to a harsher security environment.
Taiwan: The island that could drag both countries into conflict
Taiwan lies less than 100 km from Japan’s southwestern islands — barely a short flight away. China claims the island as its own territory and has not ruled out using force for reunification. Japan, while maintaining no formal diplomatic ties with Taipei, has become increasingly vocal about peace in the Taiwan Strait.
This is where their relationship becomes most fragile. Any conflict involving Taiwan would erupt dangerously close to Japan. In 2022, Chinese missiles splashed down inside Japan’s exclusive economic zone during military drills — a moment that startled Tokyo and reshaped its defence planning.
What does this mean for India?
For India, the China–Japan rift reverberates across the Indo-Pacific. New Delhi and Tokyo are already close strategic partners, linked through bilateral agreements, military exercises, and frameworks like the Quad. At the same time, India has been cautiously attempting to stabilise ties with China after years of border tensions.
“India and Japan are strategic partners. If tensions rise, they may draw even closer — but Beijing will view this suspiciously,” Rajan Kumar said. “India’s recent attempts to normalise ties with China could be disrupted by escalating tensions in the region.”
He also pointed to US President Donald Trump’s policy of “strategic ambiguity” regarding Taiwan:
“The US is willing to sell weapons to Taiwan, but it’s unclear whether it would send troops in case of a Chinese invasion.”
This uncertainty creates a complex “strategic triangle” in the Indo-Pacific. According to Kumar, Japan’s anxieties, China’s ambitions, and America’s unpredictability leave India navigating a difficult balancing act.
Recent talks between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in Busan did little to ease tensions. Trump’s unpredictable approach and his dealings with China have heightened concerns in Tokyo and New Delhi. His absence from a planned Quad meeting in New Delhi further complicates joint diplomatic positioning.
“China’s growing assertiveness is a shared concern for India and Japan. They must strengthen cooperation in security and defence,” Kumar noted.
