Global arms revenues hit a record $679 billion in 2024, up 5.9% in real terms, according to the latest SIPRI Top 100 ranking. Most of that growth came from Europe and the United States. By contrast, Asia and Oceania were the only region to register a decline, driven almost entirely by a sharp drop in Chinese defense revenues.
India inches upward
India remains far from global arms heavyweights, but its steady gains stood out against China’s slump. The country’s three Top 100 companies—HAL, BEL, and Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders—collectively logged $7.5 billion in 2024, up from $6.9 billion the previous year, an 8.2% rise.
- BEL was the standout performer, jumping 24% to $2.47 billion, buoyed by strong domestic demand for radars and electronic warfare systems.
- HAL, India’s highest-ranked firm at 44th globally, brought in $3.81 billion, a slight 0.3% dip amid delivery delays.
- Mazagon Dock, driven by submarine and destroyer programs, earned $1.23 billion, up 9.8% year-on-year.
These incremental gains reflect the momentum behind India’s Atmanirbhar Bharat (self-reliant India) effort. SIPRI notes that India’s growth is powered almost entirely by domestic orders—slow but consistent.
China’s disrupted trajectory
China’s story was markedly different. For the first time in years, the country’s eight Top 100 defense firms—once central to Xi Jinping’s modernization push—lost significant ground. Combined revenues fell 10% to $88.3 billion.
- NORINCO, China’s main land-systems producer, plunged 31%, hit by corruption investigations and leadership shakeups.
- CASC, dominant in aerospace and missile systems, dropped 16% following satellite program delays and the removal of its president.
- Even AVIC, the country’s largest defense firm, slid 1.3% due to aircraft delivery delays.
SIPRI’s Nan Tian attributed the downturn to “major arms contracts being postponed or cancelled” amid sweeping graft probes. Only two Chinese firms posted growth, including CSSC, which rose 8.7% in line with China’s naval buildup.
China still dwarfs regional peers in scale, but its rigid, opaque system has proven highly vulnerable to political purges and procurement disruptions.
Asia’s broader balance shifts
While China pulled down the region’s total, others expanded:
- South Korea surged 31% to $14.1 billion, powered by booming exports.
- Japan recorded Asia’s biggest jump—40% across five firms to $13.3 billion—reflecting Tokyo’s sharp pivot toward stronger defense postures.
Global context: An accelerating arms race
- United States: The 39 American firms in the Top 100 generated $334 billion, a 3.8% increase—nearly half of all global arms revenues. But major programs such as the F-35, Columbia-class submarines, and Sentinel ICBM continue to face delays and escalating costs, raising concerns that the U.S. is spending more for less capability.
- Europe: Revenues rose 13% to $151 billion as governments rearm in response to Russia’s war in Ukraine.
- Russia: Only two Russian firms made the list, but their revenues jumped 23% to $31.2 billion, driven by wartime demand and a dramatic ramp-up in production.
- Middle East: A record nine firms entered the Top 100, totaling $31.0 billion. Israeli companies alone contributed $16.2 billion, up 16%, supported by the Gaza conflict and global demand for drones and missile defense.
What comes next
For India: Expect continued emphasis on domestic procurement under the Defence Acquisition Procedure, with modest export ambitions toward Africa and Southeast Asia.
For China: A recovery will hinge on restoring procurement credibility, rebuilding leadership pipelines, and stabilizing defense-sector governance—even as regional tensions remain high.
For Asia more broadly: The shift from importing to manufacturing is accelerating, but long-term success will depend on stronger supply chains, institutional resilience, and geopolitical positioning.
The bottom line
India is climbing steadily—quietly building capacity through transparency and stability.
China, long seen as unstoppable, is confronting turbulence from within.
In today’s Asian defense landscape, discipline may count more than dominance—and for now, India appears to be playing the long game more effectively.
