Persian Gulf oil flows averaged more than 24m barrels per day in the week through 18 October, topping the 23.3m bpd pre-conflict level as tanker shuttle operations and alternative export routes kept crude moving, according to Kpler data.
Preliminary flows through the Strait of Hormuz, including offshore transfers in the Gulf of Oman, reached about 14m bpd, or 82% of pre-conflict volumes.
The broader 24m-bpd figure also includes alternative routes. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have been using pipelines and terminals that bypass Hormuz.
About 40% of non-Iranian Gulf crude avoided the strait in September, up from 17% before the conflict. Recent flow estimates remain preliminary because vessels operating without Automatic Identification System signals and cargoes moved through ship-to-ship transfers can take days to identify. About 30 attacks on ships had been recorded in October.
Short-haul tanker movements through the highest-risk area, supported by U.S. air cover along a corridor off Oman, have become part of the transport system.
The Tanzania-flagged supertanker Loyalty entered the Persian Gulf twice from September to load Iraqi crude and transferred 2m barrels to another tanker in the Gulf of Oman in early October.
On 16 October, maritime risk specialist Vanguard said Loyalty was hit by a rocket-propelled grenade fired from a small boat. The strike damaged a fresh-water tank while the vessel was carrying 2m barrels of Iraqi crude.
Kpler head of crude oil analysis Homayoun Falakshahi estimated traders could earn about $20 per barrel more than before the conflict by reselling Iraqi oil, equivalent to roughly $40m on a supertanker cargo.
“The volumes remain high despite rising attacks, because profits make it worth the risk,” Falakshahi said. Freight for a supertanker carrying Gulf crude to China was close to a record $37.37 per barrel.
War-risk insurance had risen to as much as 10% of a vessel’s value from less than 3%, according to Windward senior analyst Michelle Wiese Bockmann. Brent crude was trading around $108 per barrel on Tuesday.
