September quarter performance is expected to diverge sharply across major iron ore miners. Rio Tinto’s Pilbara shipments rose y/y despite CMRG tensions, leaving annual guidance achievable, while BHP delivered a record fiscal first quarter as Jimblebar Fines fully recovered. By contrast, FMG’s CMRG dispute drove a 7% y/y shipment decline, although diversification partly cushioned the loss. Vale faces growing guidance risk after exports from Brazil fell 7% y/y.
Executive summary
The Iron Ore Miners Quarterly report, part of Kpler’s Iron Ore and Steel Insight offering, was previously published as Market Pulse as of August 2026. The report provides forecasts of iron ore producers’ quarterly output and shipments ahead of their official results, using proprietary modelling that combines Kpler’s vessel-tracking and trade-flow data with analysts’ market expertise.
- Australian iron ore majors generally outperformed their Atlantic peers in Q3. Rio Tinto’s physical flows remained resilient despite CMRG restrictions, while BHP posted record September-quarter exports. FMG was the exception, with its dispute with CMRG sharply reducing Chinese sales.
- In the Atlantic, Vale’s exports contracted y/y as elevated freight costs, softer Chinese steel demand, and greater competition squeezed volumes, raising the prospect of a guidance cut.
- Rio-owned IOC, included in our forecast for the first time, staged a sizeable quarterly recovery, but its multi-year operational reset and persistent logistics disruptions mean full-year guidance remains at risk.
Rio Tinto: CMRG tensions have yet to materially affect overall Pilbara shipments
Rio Tinto exported 83.90Mt of iron ore from Western Australia in Q3 2026, up 2% y/y, despite souring relations with China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG). CMRG reportedly asked some Chinese steelmakers to suspend negotiations with Rio Tinto in early August and then asked them to hold off purchases of Pilbara Blend in early September. So far, however, the impact on overall physical Pilbara flows remains limited, even though some of the volumes may translate only into Rio’s portside inventory in China rather than into actual sales, and shipments of Pilbara blend fines are starting to slow down. China still accounted for 81.50% of Rio’s Q3 exports from Western Australia, broadly unchanged from a year earlier, suggesting that the miner has made little effort to diversify its customer base.
We expect Rio Tinto to officially report 86.20Mt of Pilbara iron ore sales (100% basis) in Q3, up 2.20% y/y, when it publishes its operational results on 13 October. Combined with reported H1 sales of 157.65Mt, this would lift nine-month volumes to approximately 243.85Mt, leaving 79.15–94.15Mt required in Q4 to meet full-year guidance of 323–338Mt. Rio’s Q4 sales have averaged 86.93Mt over the past five years, suggesting that the midpoint of guidance remains achievable at a normal seasonal shipment pace
CMRG nevertheless remains the principal downside risk. Any escalation could begin to affect physical sales after having so far been largely confined to commercial negotiations. Key indicators to watch include any update on CMRG discussions in Rio’s Q3 operational review, Chinese port inventories of Pilbara Blend and any visits to China by senior Rio executives.
At Simandou, total exports surged 66% q/q to 8.74Mt in Q3, although we estimate that BWCS continued to account for most shipments. SimFer volumes should increase further in Q4 as permanent crushing facilities come online and locomotive availability ceases to be a major logistical bottleneck.
Rio Tinto-owned IOC: Q3 recovery insufficient to remove guidance risk
Iron Ore Company of Canada (IOC), Rio Tinto’s majority-owned Canadian operation, exported 5.03Mt in Q3 2026, recovering from 3.30Mt in Q1 and 3.77Mt in Q2. The improvement appears to reflect a recovery in port unloading capacity and improved pellet machine availability.
Nevertheless, Q3 exports remained 6.40% below the year-ago level. IOC’s strategic operational reset, launched in late 2025, is designed to catch up on deferred waste stripping, improve long-term pit health and restore operational flexibility. Rio has indicated that this process will take several years, during which concentrate production is expected to remain constrained. Logistics has added another layer of disruption, with the QNS&L Railway suffering at least four outages this year due to wildfires, a derailment and adverse weather.
We expect Rio Tinto to report 3.70–4.20Mt of IOC sales (100% basis) in Q3, bringing nine-month sales to 10.16–10.66Mt. IOC would therefore need to sell at least 4.34Mt in Q4 merely to reach the bottom of its 15–18Mt full-year guidance.
That target remains possible, but increasingly demanding. IOC’s Q4 sales have averaged 4.15Mt over the past five years, while concentrate production remains constrained by the operational reset. High shipping costs have cut margins on cargoes to East Asian destinations. A reduction to full-year guidance, therefore, remains a material risk when Rio Tinto reports its Q3 operational results.
Vale: Q3 weakness raises the prospect of a full-year guidance cut
Vale exported 77.30Mt of iron ore from Brazil in Q3 2026, down 7.30% y/y, the sharpest annual contraction since 2020. Shipments to the miner’s major markets, including East Asia, Southeast Asia and Europe, all declined y/y. India was the main exception: although still a relatively small market for Vale, shipments to the country reached a record 3.20Mt, supported by capacity expansion among customers such as JSW Steel.
