Stolt-Nielsen’s 3Q26 core figures were in line with consensus but somewhat below our estimates, as higher bunker costs absorbed stronger spot rates. While the Middle East conflict has sent crude and product tanker earnings soaring, chemical tankers have captured only part of the momentum. Still, 4Q26 is expected to be modestly softer, but depleted chemical inventories point to a restocking cycle ahead. Despite slightly reducing our estimates, we reiterate Hold with a higher TP of NOK 405/sh. (385), supported by the improved debt profile.
Strong spot rates were offset by higher bunker costs
Adj. EBITDA of USD 184.4m was in line with consensus but 4.5% below our estimate. Stolt Tankers’ operating profit of USD 52.1m missed our USD 63m, as 40.5% higher spot rates were offset by bunker costs of USD 718/t (USD 500/t) and 22.1% lower spot volumes. Deep-sea TCE was USD 24,121/day (-2.9% YoY, +3.2% QoQ). New financing (a USD 165m newbuilding loan and a USD 370m RCF) further improved the debt profile.
Chemical tankers lag the tanker rally
Disruptions around Hormuz and the Red Sea have pushed crude tanker earnings to all-time highs on longer ton-miles, risk premiums and firm sentiment. With roughly 70% of pre-war crude volumes now reaching the market via pipelines and ship-to-ship transfers, conventional tankers have been the clear winners. Chemical rates, however, have recovered only modestly, constrained by lost volumes, feedstock shortages and low production. Chemical volumes remain ~15% below pre-war levels. Feedstock shortages and elevated prices have drawn chemical inventories down to multi-year lows, particularly in Asia, so a prolonged restocking period will be required. Together with expected higher US exports, this should lift volumes and ton-miles. Meanwhile, strong product tanker markets should keep swing tonnage out of chemical trades well into 2027.
Stance reiterated amid limited and complex market visibility
The diversified business model continues to support the investment case: non-tanker segments contributed to ~50% of 3Q26 EBITDA. Overall financial performance is expected to be somewhat softer compared to 3Q26. Thus, despite slightly reducing our near-term estimates, we raise our TP to NOK 405/sh. (385), mainly driven by the improved debt profile, following the Avenir LNG deconsolidation.
Source: Norne Research
