Red Sea-origin light ends (gasoline/blending components, naphtha and NGLs) passing through the Bab-el-Mandeb have dropped by over a third as of July 28 after hitting a Vortexa dataset high (2016-2026) of 1.6mb on July 6 as supply constraints extend beyond the Middle East Gulf and into the Red Sea.
Since Saudi-origin seaborne exports accounted for ~95% of oil moving through the Bab-el-Mandeb in June, the Houthi naval blockade of Saudi Arabia announced on July 20 effectively compromises all oil flows through the chokepoint. Destinations for Saudi-origin light ends are varied, with seaborne flows out of Saudi Arabia’s western ports like Yanbu, Rabigh and Jizan historically moving through the Bab-el-Mandeb to Singapore, Indonesia and other Asian countries.
While Vortexa data shows vessels and carriers are still transiting the Bab-el-Mandeb, 22 moved through the chokepoint on July 28, compared to 27 on July 19, the day before the Houthi blockade was announced. During this period, the vessel and carrier count fell as low as 12 on July 25.
Both the blockade itself as well as uncertainty around the enforcement of the blockade forces suppliers in the Red Sea to consider an alternate export route out of the region. If a vessel leaving the Red Sea for south or east Asia bypasses the Bab-el-Mandeb it must use the Suez Canal, which then requires passage through the Strait of Gibraltar and around the Cape of Good Hope. Depending on the port origin and destination, the voyage time from Red Sea producers to Asian consumers can more than double by not transiting the Bab-el-Mandeb.
For example, the most common origin and destination ports for LPG+ (LPG and ethane) on this route in the past year was Yanbu, Saudi Arabia and Sariaya, Philippines, with a fully laden VLGC able to complete a voyage between the two ports in 19 days when passing through the Bab-el-Mandeb. Without use of the Bab-el-Mandeb, however, the voyage time from Yanbu to Sariaya more than doubles to 47 days. In comparison, a VLGC traveling from the US Gulf Coast to Sariaya at the same speed can complete this voyage in ~35 days, increasing its appeal as a supplier if Red Sea-origin light ends cannot make their way through the Bab-el-Mandeb.
Fleet distribution data shows an increase in ballast VLGC and VLECs moving from shipping regions around the Middle East and towards the Atlantic Basin throughout the second half of July. The count of these vessels and carriers that last moved LPG+ was 32 as of July 27, rising from 18 seen at the start of the month.
Within the Atlantic Basin, US seaborne light ends exports are dominated by LPG+, which accounted for 75% of the total in June. US stock levels of LPG+ have been well-above the seasonal average throughout 2026, with LPG+ 35% above the five-year average, suggesting flexibility for exported volumes.
While many alternate suppliers have shorter voyages than the Suez Canal re-route, the US is particularly well positioned to solidify its foothold in the Asian market in terms of both voyage time and stock levels. As long as critical chokepoints in the Persian Gulf and Red Sea remain compromised, Saudi-origin light ends flows to its largest traditional customers are likely to remain on hold.
Source: Vortexa
