New Delhi: India could face a difficult monsoon season this year, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) lowering its rainfall forecast and warning of a significant risk of drought-like conditions.
The IMD on Friday revised its June–September monsoon forecast to 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA), down from the 92% estimate issued in April. The weather agency said there is a 60% probability of deficient rainfall, defined as seasonal rainfall below 90% of the LPA.
A weak monsoon could affect not only agriculture but also water storage levels, groundwater recharge, and hydropower generation, creating challenges across multiple sectors.
El Niño Behind Downgraded Outlook
The revised forecast is linked to the expected development of strong El Niño conditions, a climate phenomenon marked by warming sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. El Niño events are typically associated with weaker monsoons and hotter summers in India.
According to IMD chief Mrutyunjaya Mohapatra, climate models suggest El Niño conditions may emerge during the southwest monsoon season, strengthening from weak levels in June to moderate levels in July and August before becoming strong by September.
Heatwave Conditions Likely in June
The IMD has also forecast above-normal heatwave days during June across several regions, including Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, and parts of Maharashtra, Telangana, Himachal Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu.
Rajasthan and Jharkhand, however, are expected to experience fewer heatwave days than usual.
Possible Delay in Monsoon Progress
The weather agency indicated that the onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala could be slightly delayed from its normal arrival date of June 1. A slower advance of the monsoon across the country may postpone sowing activities, particularly since more than half of India’s cultivated land depends on rainfall rather than irrigation.
The IMD now expects monsoon onset over Kerala within the next seven days.
Concerns for Kharif Crops
The forecast is especially worrying for the country’s monsoon core zone, which includes large parts of central and western India that rely heavily on seasonal rains for farming. Below-normal rainfall in this region could reduce kharif crop acreage and affect overall agricultural production.
The situation may be further complicated by ongoing tensions in West Asia, which have already raised concerns over the availability and cost of key agricultural inputs such as diesel and fertilisers.
Government Announces Preparedness Measures
Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said the government has prepared contingency plans to address potential disruptions caused by poor rainfall.
These measures include promoting drought-tolerant and climate-resilient crops, encouraging less water-intensive farming practices, ensuring adequate supplies of seeds and fertilisers, strengthening weather-based advisory services, and implementing efficient water management strategies.
Addressing a national conference on kharif preparedness, the minister urged state governments to prepare for possible El Niño-related challenges and develop agriculture plans tailored to local climatic conditions and available resources. He also assured states of full support from the central government during the upcoming sowing season.
