Global seaborne jet fuel exports continued to fall month-on-month and reached seasonal lows in April. Energy flows from the Middle East Gulf (MEG) remained constrained amid ongoing disruptions to transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Supply tightness was exacerbated by reduced jet fuel liftings from Northeast Asia (NEA) and India West Coast, as refineries in Asia reduced runs due to lower crude arrivals from the MEG and retained more barrels for the domestic market. On a year-on-year basis, seaborne jet fuel exports dropped by 0.63mbd.
Looking ahead, jet fuel supplies from NEA are set to increase in May and June. This will be led primarily by South Korea, as crude arrivals are forecasted to recover to ~80% of pre-disruption levels in May, supporting higher refinery utilisation. Coupled with favourable jet/kero cracks, margin-oriented refineries in South Korea are expected to increase exports over the coming weeks. We also expect China to send more jet fuel barrels to other Asian markets, supported by regional demand pull. In addition, exports from Taiwan could rise amid higher production, as Formosa’s Mailiao refinery 180kbd CDU is scheduled to restart in May following planned maintenance (Argus).
Arbitrage to USWC and NWE to widen
Increased supplies from NEA are expected to ease jet fuel prices in Asia. Meanwhile, jet fuel arrivals into the United States West Coast (USWC) reached seasonal lows in April and are expected to fall further in 1H May. As a result, jet fuel availability in the USWC is tightening, compounded by structural supply losses following the closure of Valero’s 145kbd Benicia refinery in April 2026 (Argus). These dynamics are likely to widen the jet fuel price differential between USWC and Asia, improving arbitrage economics. As such, we expect higher exports from South Korea to head to the USWC, with arrivals from late May onwards given the 18 day voyage duration. We could also see barrels from Asia move into Europe should the East-to-West arbitrage widen. The impact of lower global jet fuel liftings in April will be felt most acutely in Wider Northwest Europe (WNWE). As shown below, WNWE jet fuel imports are expected to decrease by close to 300kbd year-on-year in early May. Inventories in the region are already tight, with ARA jet fuel stocks falling below the 5-year seasonal range as of 6 May 2026 (source: Insights Global via Argus). At the same time, jet fuel demand in the Atlantic Basin is set to rise seasonally during the summer travel period. The combination of lower inflows and stronger demand points to a tightening market, which will likely support higher prices in NWE and incentivise arbitrage inflows from Asia. Overall, higher supplies from Asia are expected to drive a modest recovery in global jet fuel exports in the coming months. Arbitrage economics to move jet fuel barrels from Asia to the USWC and NWE are likely to improve, leading to a rebalancing of trade flows. However, incremental exports from Asia are unlikely to fully offset lost MEG supply in the near term. Until seaborne flows normalise, jet/kero cracks are expected to remain elevated relative to other refined products, incentivising refiners to maximise jet fuel yields at the margin.
Source: Vortexa
