Vortexa data shows six tankers loaded from the US Gulf Coast were en route to Europe before diverting toward the South Atlantic.
Five of them, ALAI (9884813), ELKA DELPHI (9705902), MINERVA VASO (9318008), PROTEUS BOHEMIA (9923437), and HAFNIA EGRET (9607174) are now signalling Durban, South Africa as their destination. Meanwhile, GRAND ACE6 (9375329) is currently anchored in the Lome STS zone.
Prior to diverting, these vessels were headed to Europe, with ALAI signalling Gibraltar as its destination, while the other vessels signalled Amsterdam. This suggests that these cargoes had not found buyers at the time of diversion.
Possible Destinations for Diverted Cargoes
The ultimate destination of these six cargoes remains uncertain, but there are two plausible scenarios. Durban has historically relied on Middle Eastern diesel imports now severed by the Hormuz disruption. The outcome of the ongoing conflict reached East and South Africa first and is creating extreme deficits (see here for the previous article on disruption impact). As a well-established storage and redistribution hub, Durban is a credible destination in its own right. Meanwhile, we could also see these cargoes discharged in Asia either directly by these tankers or through mid-voyage cargo STS.
The economics of diverting the Europe-bound diesel cargoes is compelling. The front-month gasoil East-West spread has widened to +$297/t (Argus) in Asia’s favour as of April 2. The tanker diversions are responses to the most extreme diesel arbitrage signal seen in at least a decade. Whether these barrels ultimately land in Durban or Dalian may depend less on destination signals and more on who bids highest before they get around the Cape.
Next for Europe
Northwest Europe is a net diesel importer relying on the US Gulf Coast, the Middle East, and India West Coast. Since the Middle East Gulf conflict started in March, diesel cargoes (e.g. ADVANTAGE LIFE) originating from Reliance’s Jamnagar refinery in India quickly diverted away from Europe to Asia. As a result, March seaborne diesel cargo originating from the refinery saw a jump in Asia-bound volume and a drastic decrease in Africa- and Europe-bound volume. So far, Russia’s gasoline and diesel export restriction on non-producers is still in place.
The export ban is also expanding to producers in the case of gasoline, compounded by drone attacks. Whether there will be a formal producer-level ban remains to be seen, de facto diesel export volume is already significantly suppressed in Russia. It would be hard for Europe to get substantial relief from Russia, in a scenario where the EU would consider lifting or pausing existing sanctions on Russian refined products.
Europe’s diesel crunch could become more severe in April, now that US export barrels are being pulled towards South Africa and eventually Asia.
Source: Vortexa
