Pan Ocean is accelerating business expansion as it decided to acquire a large number of SK Shipping’s very large crude carriers (VLCCs). The shipping industry sees a favorable environment for scaling up with VLCC rates soaring, but notes that the high ages of the acquired SK Shipping fleet and potential shifts in global geopolitics could be obstacles.
According to the shipping industry on the 20th, Pan Ocean on the 11th signed a contract with SK Shipping to acquire 10 VLCCs for $668 million (about 973.7 billion won). That is 9.48% of Pan Ocean’s total asset amount (10.2715 trillion won).
Pan Ocean said it decided on the acquisition “to strengthen transport capacity and secure a revenue base by acquiring vessels performing long-term cargo transport contracts with major domestic shippers.” The vessels are scheduled to be delivered in April next year under the contract.
Once the deliveries are completed, Pan Ocean will operate a total of 12 VLCCs. By expanding its relatively small VLCC fleet, it will be able to diversify its business portfolio. As of the end of last year, Pan Ocean’s fleet numbered 246 ships, of which only two were VLCCs.
As of the end of last year, Pan Ocean’s operating fleet consisted of 202 dry bulk carriers and 44 non-dry bulk vessels. Dry bulk refers to cargoes such as grain or minerals. Wet bulk refers to crude oil or refined petroleum products.
Pan Ocean is expected to offset risks in its existing business by expanding into the VLCC segment, where the market outlook is bright. That is because forecasts are strong that the company’s core dry bulk business will remain flat on the back of supply dominance, and that the recovery in market conditions for MR tankers (oil product carriers of around 50,000 DWT), which had been the mainstay of Pan Ocean’s non-dry bulk segment, will be sluggish.
According to Korea Ocean Business Corporation (KOBC), revenue for Capesize dry bulk carriers (dry bulk carriers of 100,000 DWT or more), Pan Ocean’s main focus, is projected to fall 20% from a year earlier. The reason is that while 39.8 million DWT of dry bulk capacity is scheduled for delivery this year, only 11.2 million DWT is expected to be scrapped, meaning the supply-dominant situation will persist.
In contrast, the VLCC daily time-charter rate is expected to average $57,600 this year, up 12.7% from a year earlier. Although it fell 1.7% last year from the previous year, it is forecast to rebound sharply this year as seaborne crude volumes increase. The MR tanker daily time-charter rate is also expected to rise 12.6% year over year to $24,100 this year, but it will likely fall short of $29,900 in 2024.
Pan Ocean has made an investment that can generate revenue immediately given these market conditions, but some in the industry say it could be a somewhat risky move. The main reason cited is that the VLCCs Pan Ocean holds are relatively old.
SK Shipping owns 19 VLCCs. Their average age is 12.2 years. Excluding six vessels aged 4 to 6 years, the average age is 15.5 years, and the industry believes Pan Ocean has brought in these older ships.
With secondhand VLCC prices on a steady rise, vessels around five years old have recently been fetching about $124 million (about 179 billion won). Prices for around 10-year-old VLCCs also stood at about $97 million (about 140 billion won) per ship in early this month.
Given that Pan Ocean’s price to acquire 10 ships is $668 million, the view is that it is acquiring vessels around 15 years old. Such ships could be heavily affected by expected economic regulations on greenhouse gas emissions to be implemented starting this year (midterm measures).
The midterm measures center on gradually reducing, relative to a baseline, the greenhouse gas fuel intensity for ships of 5,000 gross tons (GT) or more engaged in international voyages, by up to 43% by 2035. Even if the basic target (a 30% reduction) is achieved, $100 per ton of greenhouse gas emissions must be paid into the IMO net-zero fund. If the basic target is not met, the levy is $480 per ton.
Older ships structurally cannot use zero-carbon fuels, and in many cases do not have greenhouse gas reduction equipment installed. If Pan Ocean brings in a large number of older ships with this investment, the cost burden from regulations could rise sharply.
In addition, ships that are continuously exposed to seawater typically face a higher risk of structural defects once they reach 15 years of age or more, driving up maintenance and repair expenses, which the industry sees as another risk. Previously, HMM also took this into account and valued SK Shipping at around 2 trillion won during its acquisition talks.
The industry also views geopolitics as another potential risk. The tanker market is being buoyed not by an increase in global oil exports but by the rise in ton-miles (a metric for seaborne freight calculated by multiplying cargo weight by distance) due to sanctions on Russian crude amid the Russia-Ukraine war, and there is a possibility the market could change significantly if the war ends.
A shipping industry official said, “In the case of the tanker business, the short-term market is bright, so it could generate revenue for now, but there are clearly multiple risks ahead,” adding, “Pan Ocean has made a large investment to expand its fleet, and whether these ships can win their next transport contracts will be the key to the success or failure of the investment.”
Source: Chosunbiz
