US LPG exports—largely known for having predominantly larger amounts of propane in its individual cargoes—have been steadily increasing the amounts of butane that are being sent out. These cargoes are largely headed to major evenly-split cargo customers in the Southeast Asia, the Med and Africa, with the first region rapidly becoming a focal point of the intensifying turf war between the US and Middle East for global LPG market share.
The changing export slate is marked by two dynamics: increasing product flexibility as new export capacity expansions come online and the US’ efforts to diversify its sendout portfolio from northeast Asia where petrochemical margins remain poor and trade relations with China, a major importer of propane, continue to be dicey.
Although Energy Transfer’s Nederland terminal continues to dominate US butane exports, Enterprise’s Houston and Phillips 66’s Freeport facilities are creeping up in terms of market share.
Energy Transfer recently increased its terminal’s LPG capacity by ~150 kbd in Q3 2025 but its Marcus Hook hub in PADD 1 also stepped up sendout to Africa and the Med. Enterprise is likely to further surge its butane share this year with ~660kbd of LPG capacity expansions at both its Houston and new Neches River facilities.
Propane’s advantage wanes
The relative underperformance of US propane exports compared to butane boils down to the lower intakes from northeast Asia, primarily from Japan and South Korea as propane has lost it steam cracker cash cost advantage to naphtha and PDH margins resolutely remain in the red (please see our latest monthly LPG report for more details).
Exports to China, although up m-o-m, so far in January will prove a tenuous affair given the ongoing fractious relationship between the two countries. That said, US-China flows have remained steadfastly lower y-o-y since President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs in April 2025. Although the two countries agreed in Q4 2024 to postpone further tariffs and the USTR/ China port fee issue until December 2026, both nations have strived to reduce their heavy LPG import/export reliance.
The outlook for exports and US LPG prices
Our forward steam cracker and PDH margins for northeast Asia look dire for incremental propane demand in that region. Meanwhile, record high PADD 3 propane inventories—despite the current winter storm—are likely to remain in place into the start of shoulder season. Indeed, we estimate PADD 3 propane stocks are likely to end January just above the all-time high of 48.8mbd set in January 2016 (IEA). Mont Belvieu propane spot prices are currently ~30 cpg below year-ago levels and are likely to remain so for the foreseeable future (Argus Media prices).
Mont Belvieu spot butane prices are nearly 40 cpg below year-ago levels, despite January’s hefty sendout. Forward curves for both purity products are in backwardation at the front of the curve, which is typical for peak heating and Q1 holiday seasons.
The ability to clear record storage overhangs for both these products continues to rely heavily on significant amounts of waterborne exports. However, January terminal utilisation rates out of PADD 3 export facilities are ~104%, Vortexa data show, meaning terminals are already at capacity. As such, further export upside is unlikely until new expansions kick in around Q2 2026, implying lower-for-longer flat prices.
Source: Vortexa
