Total bunker costs for ships operating in Europe rose on Wednesday as expanded European Union emissions-trading rules for maritime transport took effect, lifting per-tonne compliance costs as shipowners moved to full exposure under the scheme, according to Ship & Bunker.
From Jan. 1, 2026, shipowners must cover 100% of applicable EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) costs for emissions on covered voyages, up from 70% in 2025 and 40% in 2024.
On prevailing fuel and carbon price assumptions, owners at the end of 2025 were paying around $220 in EU ETS compliance costs for every tonne of very low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) burned on intra-EU voyages.
That rises by about 45% to roughly $315 per tonne from Jan. 1, 2026, reflecting the shift to full compliance.
Using an assumed EUA price of €85.02, compliance costs per tonne of fuel burned increase to about $315 for high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO), $319 for VLSFO and $324 for low-sulphur marine gasoil ((LS)MGO), compared with roughly $217–$224 previously.
Average VLSFO prices in the EMEA region stood at about $464.50 per tonne at the end of 2025. Under the regulation, ships above 5,000 gross tonnes calling at EU ports are required to pay for emissions on a per-voyage basis. Actual compliance costs can vary depending on voyage patterns, including cases where only one EU port is involved.
Emissions generated during a calendar year are covered by the purchase and surrender of EU allowances (EUAs), with surrender due by September of the following year. As a result, emissions produced in 2025 are settled in September 2026 at the 70% compliance rate, while emissions generated in 2026 will be settled in September 2027 at the full 100% rate.
The expansion also brings updated emission factors used to calculate the number of EUAs required per tonne of fuel burned. From 2026 onwards, factors rise to 3.163 for HSFO, 3.200 for VLSFO and 3.255 for (LS)MGO, compared with lower levels used in 2024 and 2025.
EU carbon prices started 2025 at around €70 per allowance, fell to about €60 by the end of the first quarter and have been rising since.
