US President Donald Trump’s sanctions on two major Russian oil companies have begun to sharply disrupt Moscow’s crude supplies to India. Fresh data shows that India-bound Russian crude shipments fell by a steep 66% in November, as domestic refiners tread carefully ahead of US measures targeting Rosneft and Lukoil that took effect on November 21.
According to global analytics firm Kpler, Russian crude heading to India averaged 672,000 barrels per day (bpd) between November 1 and 17—far below the 1.88 million bpd recorded in October. Russia’s overall crude exports have also slumped, falling 28% to 2.78 million bpd in November, the Economic Times reported, citing Kpler data.
Notably, nearly half of all loaded tankers are currently sailing without declared destinations, underscoring the difficulty Russian exporters face in securing buyers and sanction-compliant routes. Shipments to other major customers have also dwindled: exports to China dropped 47% to 624,000 bpd, while deliveries to Turkey plunged 87% to just 43,000 bpd.
In October, China, India, and Turkey collectively accounted for around 90% of Russia’s crude exports. Since Russian shipments typically take about a month to reach India, most of November’s cargoes will land in December—after the US sanctions wind-down period ends.
Indian refiners have responded by slowing new purchases while fast-tracking existing orders, affecting loading schedules. This can be seen in early-November delivery figures: Russian crude arriving in India rose 16% to 1.88 million bpd from November 1–17, compared with October averages.
“Recent tanker movements indicate a marked change in Russia’s crude trading patterns, including mid-voyage diversions between India and China and ship-to-ship transfers at unusual points such as off the Mumbai coast—far from the typical Singapore Strait transfer zones,” said Sumit Ritolia, lead refining and modelling analyst at Kpler, in comments to the Economic Times. These tactics, he added, reflect how Russian exporters are adjusting their logistics to navigate tightening Western restrictions.
Russia’s oil transport network is increasingly relying on opaque practices. This includes using sanctioned or ‘shadow fleet’ tankers to move most of the crude before transferring it to non-sanctioned vessels that are able to dock at Indian ports. The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) estimates that sanctioned tankers carried 44% of Russia’s crude exports in October.
India should brace for a substantial downturn in Russian oil imports in the coming months—especially in December and January—Ritolia warned. A “noticeable drop” is expected as refiners adopt more cautious strategies, such as purchasing through unsanctioned intermediaries, blending cargoes, and employing more complex logistics to minimize exposure to US OFAC rules. While Russian supplies will continue, they are likely to move through increasingly opaque channels.
The sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil cover roughly 3 million bpd of Russian exports, with India previously taking about one-third of that volume. Several Indian refiners have publicly stated that they will avoid transactions with sanctioned entities.
Washington’s sanctions strategy aims to weaken Moscow’s revenue streams and curb its military campaign in Ukraine. Meanwhile, energy has emerged as a key point in ongoing US-India trade negotiations. In a recent development, Indian state-owned companies signed their first annual contracts to import LPG from US suppliers—volumes expected to meet around 10% of India’s total LPG import needs.
