In October 2025, U.S. container imports totaled 2,306,687 Twenty-foot Equivalent Units (TEUs), down a slight 0.1% from September and below the 2.4M–2.6M TEU range that typically marks peak trade activity. This marks only the second October in the past decade to record a month-over-month (MoM) decline, underscoring continued importer caution amid shifting trade and economic conditions and likely frontloading activity that occurred earlier in the year as importers adjusted to evolving tariff timelines. China-origin imports rose 5.4% MoM, posting a modest recovery over declines in September and August; however, volumes are 16.3% below last year as importers remain cautious in response to evolving tariff policies.
Port transit delays increased slightly across most major gateways, reflecting routine seasonal variation but no signs of systemic congestion as ports maintained stable throughput. Carriers continue to avoid the Red Sea corridor, routing around the Cape of Good Hope and extending Suez-linked schedules by up to two weeks. The U.S.–China trade framework, finalized in early November, lowers tariffs by 10 percentage points and suspends Chinese retaliatory measures, easing short-term uncertainty but leaving long-term structural issues unresolved. Meanwhile, Liberation Day tariffs remain in force pending Supreme Court review, and the federal government shutdown continues to slow regulatory processes, contributing to a cautious trade environment.
U.S. container imports flat in October.
In October 2025, U.S. container import volumes totaled 2,306,687 TEUs, nearly unchanged from September but 7.5% lower year-over-year (see Figure 1). On a year-to-date basis, volumes for the first ten months of 2025 are just 0.9% above the same period in 2024. The year-to-date growth margin has steadily narrowed throughout the year—from nearly 10% in January to now less than 1% in October—suggesting that suspected frontloading earlier in the year, softer economic conditions, and slower consumer demand has steadily slowed momentum.
October 2025 import volumes slipped just 0.1% from September (1,246 TEUs) (see Figure 2), diverging from the typical month-over-month increase observed in eight of the past ten years. While October is one day longer and has no major holidays, this year’s divergence likely reflects importer sensitivity to tariff uncertainty and shifting policy timelines. Many shippers appear to have frontloaded imports ahead of October or deferred orders while awaiting developments in tariff negotiations with key trade partners, dampening what is typically a seasonal uptick. In the absence of usual month-over-month growth, October 2025 ranks as the fifth-highest October on record—trailing all post-pandemic Octobers except 2022 (2,220,331 TEUs)—underscoring moderation in trade amid policy uncertainty.
Top 10 U.S. port volumes flat in October compared to September.
In October 2025, container volumes across the top 10 U.S. ports were flat compared to September, slipping by just 114 TEUs (see Figure 3). Following a 7.9% decline in September, October imports at top ports suggest that import levels have steadied. Among individual ports, performance was mixed. Long Beach led with a 9.1% increase (34,616 TEUs), while Miami posted the strongest gain at 12.9% (5,226 TEUs). Oakland (4.0%) and New York/New Jersey (0.8%) also saw modest growth, and Houston edged up (1.2%). Offsetting these gains were declines at Los Angeles (5.5%), Savannah (6.1%), Tacoma (6.4%), Norfolk (3.0%), and Charleston (0.6%). Overall, the flat performance suggests importers are maintaining a more cautious pace, deviating from the typical October increase over September.
China-Origin import volumes edge higher in October.
U.S. containerized imports from China increased to 803,901 TEUs in October 2025, up 5.4% month-over-month, down 16.3% year-over-year, and down 21.4% compared to the record July 2024 level of 1,022,913 TEUs (see Figure 4). China’s share of total U.S. imports increased to 34.9% in October from 33.0% in September.
Year-over-year declines were broad across China’s leading import categories in October, with most major goods posting double-digit losses. Furniture and bedding (HS-94), China’s largest category, fell 13.6% year-over-year but retained a 15.0% share of total China-origin imports. Toys and sporting goods (HS-95) were down 30.4%, while electrical machinery (HS-85) and machinery (HS-84) decreased 17.2% and 14.0%, respectively. Apparel categories also weakened sharply, with knit apparel (HS-61) down 27.3% and non-knit apparel (HS-62) down 22.6%. In contrast, plastics (HS-39) were comparatively resilient, up 5.8% year-over-year, increasing their share to 14.3% of the total
October’s results reflect ongoing caution among importers, with broad-based year-over-year declines and limited month-over-month growth. With new U.S.–China trade terms now in place following recent negotiations, China’s share of U.S. imports may stabilize in the near term, though sentiment remains sensitive to implementation outcomes and broader market conditions.
China-origin imports rebound across key U.S. ports in October.
In October 2025, China-origin imports across the top 10 U.S. ports increased by 41,195 TEUs, a 5.7% month-over-month gain (see Figure 5). The rebound was driven by increases at Long Beach (20.4%) and New York/Newark (21.1%), with additional growth at Oakland (17.3%), Houston (5.6%), and Norfolk (1.0%). Offsetting these gains were declines at Los Angeles (8.3%), Charleston (8.4%), Seattle (20.6%), Tacoma (2.9%), and Savannah (0.8%). The mixed performance across regions points to a modest recovery in China-origin trade flows following volume declines in September and August.
Month-over-month imports from top CoO edge higher as China rebounds.
In October 2025, U.S. containerized imports from the top 10 CoO increased 1.3% month-over-month—a combined gain of 21,301 TEUs (see Figure 6). The increase was led by China, which rose 41,129 TEUs (5.4%). Significant gains were also recorded from Japan (25.2%), Italy (13.0%), and South Korea (8.2%). Hong Kong also increased 3.9%. In contrast, India fell 19.0%, Thailand 6.0%, Vietnam 4.8%, Germany 3.8%, and Indonesia 3.3%. The modest rebound across the top CoO was driven primarily by China’s recovery, offset by continued softness among several other key Asian partners.
China volumes continue to drive year-over-year contraction for top 10 CoO.
In October 2025, U.S. containerized imports from the top 10 CoO fell 9.4% year-over-year with a combined loss of 171,350 TEUs (see Figure 7). The decline was led by China, which dropped 156,115 TEUs (16.3%). Additional decreases were recorded from India (18.5%), Japan (8.5%), Germany (4.3%), South Korea (3.0%), Hong Kong (1.8%), and Italy (0.5%). In contrast, several Southeast Asian countries posted gains, with Indonesia up 10.1% year-over-year, and both Vietnam and Thailand rising 3.6%. October’s results point to continued year-over-year weakness across most major sourcing countries, driven primarily by China’s contraction, even as growth from select Southeast Asian nations helps offset broader declines.
West Coast ports up, East and Gulf ports down.
In October 2025, port shares shifted modestly from September (see Figure 8). East and Gulf Coast ports accounted for 40.7% of total volumes (down 0.6%), while West Coast ports increased to 44.2% (up 0.3%). The top 10 ports together handled 84.9% of total U.S. containerized imports, a slight decrease from 85.2% in September.
October’s results mark the first decline in East and Gulf Coast share since June. Overall, coast-to-coast shares remain within the typical range observed this year, underscoring a stable national distribution of import activity.
Port delays rise slightly in October.
In October 2025, port transit time delays increased modestly across most major U.S. gateways compared to September (see Figure 9). On the West Coast, delays rose at Los Angeles (1.0 day), Long Beach (0.5 days), Oakland (0.5 days), Tacoma (1.1 days), and Seattle (0.5 days). On the East and Gulf Coasts, delays increased at New York/New Jersey (0.6), Norfolk (0.5 days), and Houston (0.2 days), while Savannah held steady and Charleston improved slightly (0.1 days).
Overall, average transit times edged higher, reflecting seasonal variation rather than systemic congestion. Major U.S. ports continued to process throughput efficiently, with no indication of broad operational disruption.
Gulf Coast imports rebound after two months of decline.
In October 2025, Gulf Coast container imports increased to 222,931 TEUs, up 3.1% from September’s 216,206 TEUs, marking the first month of growth following two consecutive declines (see Figure 10). Volumes were 2.6% below the rolling 12-month average of 228,966 TEUs, indicating modest activity relative to typical levels.
U.S.–China trade agreement reshapes policy outlook.
In November 2025, the U.S. and China finalized a new trade and economic framework that replaces the prior tariff truce, providing short-term stability for importers. Under the agreement, the U.S. will lower tariffs on Chinese goods by 10 percentage points effective November 10, maintaining a 10% baseline rate through November 2026 while extending key Section 301 exclusions for another year. As part of the deal, the U.S. will also suspend for one year enforcement of the BIS “50 percent affiliates” end-user control rule, effective November 10, 2025. China will suspend all retaliatory tariffs and non-tariff measures imposed since March 2025, remove export controls on critical minerals such as rare earths, gallium, and graphite, and resume large-scale purchases of U.S. soybeans and other agricultural goods. The deal also includes commitments to halt fentanyl precursor shipments to the U.S. and to end retaliatory actions against U.S. semiconductor and manufacturing firms. While the agreement eases short-term trade pressures, broader disputes over technology transfer, industrial subsidies, and market access remain unresolved, leaving the longer-term direction of U.S.–China trade policy uncertain.
Liberation Day tariff enforcement continues amid legal challenge.
Liberation Day tariffs remain in force, although oral arguments in front of the U.S. Supreme Court over their legality as imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) began on November 5. Until the Supreme Court renders a decision, or another legal resolution is reached, importers continue to operate under uncertainty.
Houthi attacks ease, but rerouting remains widespread.
Recent reports suggest the severity of attacks in the Red Sea corridor is showing signs of moderation. The Suez Canal Authority (SCA) has stated that calm is gradually returning and that container carriers are beginning to test transits via the Suez Canal once again. Nonetheless, most container services continue to avoid the route, preferring the longer journey around the Cape of Good Hope, which adds 9–14 days or more depending on origin and destination. Global supply chain analysis indicates that transit volumes through the Red Sea/Suez system remain sharply reduced relative to pre-crisis norms, even if tanker traffic is gradually returning. For importers, the key takeaway is that, although some risk is receding, the route remains secondary for many carriers, while longer transit times, higher insurance premiums, and routing flexibility continue to be part of planning assumptions.
Limited trade disruption as government shutdown continues.
The ongoing federal government shutdown has had minimal impact on overall container volumes, though some regulatory processes are experiencing slowdowns. Core CBP operations remain active, while agencies such as the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), Department of Agriculture (USDA), and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) are operating with reduced staffing, which may extend clearance times for regulated goods. Licensing and documentation services at the Department of Commerce have also slowed. Meanwhile, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has announced plans to cut air-traffic at up to 10% in some major U.S. airports due to staffing shortages tied to the shutdown, raising concerns about air cargo flow and logistics capacity. Overall, maritime trade effects remain limited at this stage, but a prolonged shutdown could increase processing delays and modestly affect importer scheduling into late 2025.
Managing supply chain risk: what to watch in 2025.
In October 2025, U.S. container imports held steady at 2.31M TEUs, remaining just below the 2.4M–2.6M TEU range that typically marks peak demand. China-origin volumes rose 5.4% month-over-month but remained down 16.3% year-over-year, reflecting ongoing cautious importer sentiment ahead of the newly finalized U.S.–China trade framework, which lowered tariffs by 10% and suspended Chinese retaliatory measures. Meanwhile, Liberation Day tariffs remain in effect pending Supreme Court review, sustaining legal uncertainty for importers. The federal government shutdown continues to limit regulatory capacity at key agencies, and FAA air -traffic reductions are compounding coordination challenges across the supply chain. At the same time, Red Sea rerouting continues to lengthen transit times despite a recent reduction in attacks. Here’s what Descartes is monitoring in the months ahead:
- Expanded tariffs and other potential ‘protectionist’ trade policies. Broader and deeper tariffs applied to a wide array of goods could compel U.S. importers to significantly re-engineer their supply chains, putting additional pressure on global logistics infrastructure. With October’s modest rebound in imports from China (up 5.4% MoM, down 16.3% YoY), importers remain closely attuned to evolving tariff policy. The newly finalized U.S.–China trade framework provides short-term relief by lowering tariffs on Chinese goods by 10% and suspending Chinese retaliatory measures, but unresolved issues around technology transfer, industrial subsidies, and market access keep longer-term uncertainty high. Meanwhile, Liberation Day tariffs remain in force pending Supreme Court review, and the reciprocal tariff framework enacted in August continues to apply duties of roughly 10%–41% across more than 60 trading partners.
- Monthly TEU volumes between 2.4M and 2.6M. This level has historically been a key pressure point for U.S. ports and inland logistics networks. After September’s dip to 2.31M TEUs, October volumes held near the same level—remaining below the 2.4M–2.6M TEU pressure range. The steadiness reflects cautious importer behavior amid shifting tariff conditions, signaling moderated demand as the year closes.
- Port transit wait times. If they decrease, it’s an indication of improved global supply chain efficiencies or that the demand for goods and logistics services is declining. In October 2025, most major ports experienced slight increases in transit delays, though overall conditions remained stable with no signs of significant congestion or capacity strain.
- The economy. The U.S. is an import-driven economy, so economic health is an important indicator of container import volumes. In August 2025, non-farm payrolls rose just 22,000 and the unemployment rate held at 4.3%. Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.1 % that month, even as nominal wages rose 0.3 %. In October, the Federal Reserve cut its target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75 %–4.00 % and flagged that downside risks to employment have risen. Meanwhile, the continued federal government shutdown is delaying key labor and economic data releases, raising risk that policy and markets are operating with incomplete information.
- Middle East conflict. Houthi-related threats remain a key factor shaping global routing decisions. Although attack frequency has eased since late September, security risks in the Red Sea corridor persist, keeping most major container carriers on diverted routes around the Cape of Good Hope. Transit times on Asia–Europe and Asia–U.S. East Coast lanes remain extended by roughly 9–14 days, sustaining higher shipping costs. While some tanker and bulk traffic has cautiously resumed Suez transits, the lack of a durable ceasefire means rerouting remains the baseline assumption through 2025.
Consider recommendations to help minimize global shipping challenges.
October 2025 import volumes held flat at 2.31M TEUs, signaling a pause in growth that contrasts with the month’s usual seasonal rise in container activity. Lower seasonal pressure supported efficient port operations, though ongoing trade policy shifts, Red Sea rerouting, and rising regulatory costs continue to challenge supply chain planning. The recently finalized U.S.–China trade framework has eased some tariff uncertainty but lingering legal disputes over other duties are adding complexity to shipping costs and routing decisions. Meanwhile, the federal government shutdown and a softening U.S. economic outlook present additional risks. Descartes continues to monitor these evolving conditions through Descartes Datamyne, government releases, and industry sources to help importers anticipate disruptions, optimize logistics performance, and maintain resilience in a volatile global trade environment.
Short-term:
- Model the effects of the new U.S.–China trade framework, including reduced tariffs on Chinese goods and suspended retaliatory measures, while also accounting for uncertainty tied to Liberation Day tariff litigation.
- Assess potential impacts of the U.S. government shutdown, including slower regulatory processes that may affect import compliance and clearance times.
- Monitor port volumes and delays to assess the possibility of trade disruptions if volumes persist within the 2.4M and 2.6M levels that have historically stressed U.S. maritime logistics infrastructure.
- Track the Middle East conflict as carriers continue to avoid the Red Sea due to Houthi attacks, and heightened Iran–Israel tensions, with rerouting expected to persist.
- Evaluate the impact of inflation and the Russia/Ukraine, Israel/Hamas, and Iran/Israel conflicts on logistics costs and capacity constraints. Ensure that key trading partners are not on sanctions lists.
Near-term:
- For companies that have cargo moving through the Suez Canal and the Strait of Hormuz, evaluate the impact of extended rerouting.
Long-term:
- Evaluate supplier and factory location density to mitigate reliance on over-taxed trade lanes and regions of the globe currently experiencing geopolitical conflict or that have the potential for conflict. Density creates economy of scale but also risk, and subsequent logistics capacity crisis highlights the downside.
Source: The Descartes Systems Group
