safety certification cover.
The shadow fleet comprises between 1,200 and 1,600 tankers, according to estimates from industry sources and analysts, including Lloyd’s List Intelligence and shipbroker Gibson, representing around a fifth of the global tanker fleet.
That would imply shadow fleet tankers consume more than 106,000 bpd, or about 2% of global demand, based on Reuters calculations using 2023 bunker data from the International Maritime Organization.
“Many of these vessels will be proverbial rust buckets that are more than 15 and, in some cases, even older than 20 years,” said FGE’s Eugene Lindell, adding that these ships are less fuel-efficient and undertake long-haul routes, further increasing fuel oil consumption.
SCRUBBER ADOPTION AND REGULATORY CHALLENGES
The IMO’s 2020 regulations lowered the sulphur content limit in marine fuels from 3.5% to 0.5%, initially dampening demand for HSFO.
However, widespread adoption of scrubbers — onboard systems that allow ships to burn HSFO while reducing its environmental impact — has driven a recovery in consumption.
By the end of 2024, more than 6,000 vessels had installed scrubbers, according to maritime consultancy DNV, which expects the number to reach 6,523 by year-end, up from 4,348 in 2020.
Despite forecasts by the IEA showing fuel oil demand declining after 2026, averaging 6.1 million bpd by 2030, opposition to IMO regulations could sustain demand. Energy Aspects said that U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration has resisted the IMO’s tighter emissions rules and proposed carbon pricing, which may delay their implementation.
“Fuel oil demand will be sticky for, at least, the end of this decade,” said Kenneth Tveter of shipbroker Clarksons.
Source: Reuters
