The maritime industry has always prized experience in decision-making. For decades, design choices, operational decisions and investment strategies have been shaped by what had worked before – tested methods passed from shipyard to shipyard, manager to master, build to build. But in today’s increasingly complex shipping environment, where the stakes are higher, margins tighter and regulations tougher, relying on what’s worked before can be as risky as sailing with no chart at all.
At Houlder, we call this reliance on familiarity “dead reckoning” decision-making. It’s the practice of plotting a course by past position – valuable for a time, but potentially inefficient when conditions change. And conditions have changed.
Intuition can’t keep up with complexity
Regulatory frameworks like CII, EU ETS, FuelEU Maritime (and future IMO Mid Term measures outlined in MEPC 83) are transforming the commercial dynamics of fleet management. No longer is non-compliance merely reputational or a rounding error. It now translates directly into cost, carbon intensity ratings, marketability, and viability.
The pressure to make the right decision – about retrofits, technology adoption, or even simple operational changes – has never been greater. But too many owners and operators still lean heavily on legacy knowledge: “We installed this tech on another ship and saw good results,” or “We’ve always run these vessels at this speed.” That might have worked in yesterday’s shipping world. Today, it risks locking in inefficiencies or worse – making costly mistakes that could have been avoided with a more rigorous approach.
From gut feel to grounded modelling
The solution isn’t to throw out experience. Rather, it’s to enhance it – with structured, data-driven analysis tailored to the specific vessel, its operating profile and its regulatory and commercial context.
At Houlder, we recently worked with a client who wanted to replicate an energy-saving retrofit that had worked well on one vessel to its sister ship. It seemed like a straightforward copy-paste decision. But when we looked at the AIS and performance data, we discovered the second ship operated at consistently slower speeds and lower draughts. The same retrofit would still deliver savings – but not to the same extent, and the payback period would be significantly longer. That small insight changed the business case – and it wouldn’t have been revealed without a closer look.
This is exactly the kind of challenge today’s owners are facing: decisions that look simple on paper but reveal complexity when you dig into the data.
A closer look at clean tech
Take wind-assisted propulsion systems (WAPS); rotor sails, suction sails, soft sails – each is showing promise. But the industry has also seen examples where these systems, when poorly matched to a vessel’s real-world profile, have underperformed or even increased fuel use.
Houlder has supported owners and OEMs through sea trials designed specifically to close that gap between prediction and performance. We’ve developed bespoke instrumentation packages to track WAPS behavior in live conditions, run real-time analysis during trials and validate or recalibrate modelling accordingly. The result isn’t just a smoother integration – but a clearer, data-backed view of what a new technology can realistically deliver, and under what conditions.
It’s a similar story with slow steaming. While reducing speed is an intuitive way to cut emissions, the consequences aren’t always obvious. Through one project, we found that a vessel’s shaft generator – locked at a fixed RPM to power onboard electrical systems – was preventing its controllable pitch propeller from adjusting to optimal pitch. Switching to a genset freed the shaft to operate at a more efficient pitch and RPM combination and delivered greater net fuel savings, despite the additional generator load. That counterintuitive result came only through a data-informed understanding of the full propulsion system.
Building a smarter decision environment
To support this kind of insight at scale, we’ve developed the Houlder Optimization and Modelling Environment (HOME). Built by our team of naval architects and engineers and drawing on real-world operational data and modular simulations of factors ranging from weather and sea state to hull form, loading and a range of ESDs, HOME uses a growing library of past projects that allows our consultants draw on and continue to develop analysis and insight from across our experience.
HOME allows us to model a vessel and its operational profile– accounting for weather, loading, hull form, sea state, ESDs – and test combinations of variables to inform decisions at every stage, from concept to operation. It’s about giving owners the ability to ask better questions and get answers grounded not in legacy assumptions, but in their vessel’s actual performance.
Importantly, it also helps manage risk. By understanding how design changes, operating behaviors, or clean technologies will likely perform in real conditions, owners can avoid overinvesting in marginal gains or misapplying promising innovations.
Shifting the mindset
The tools are here. The processing power is here. The data, in many cases, is already being generated onboard. What’s needed now is a shift in mindset – from reactive to proactive, from assumption to validation.
That means involving data scientists and naval architects early, not just at the point of failure or frustration. It means treating every major decision as a chance to model, test, and refine – before committing time, money, or emissions.
At Houlder, we’re not advocating a cold, algorithmic approach to vessel design or operation. We’re advocating a better-informed gut. Maritime professionals will always need to make judgement calls – but the best calls are those made with full awareness of the risks, trade-offs, and opportunities.
Because in this new era, where decarbonization isn’t a distant goal but a present necessity, the future of ship performance won’t be guided by what we feel. It will be defined by what we can see.
Source: Houlder
